IMD forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall, above-normal heatwaves in June
New Delhi, May 29
The India Meteorological Department on Friday issued its second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon season, projecting below-normal rainfall across several key regions of the country while warning of heatwave conditions in multiple states starting in June.
Addressing a press conference, Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the country is expected to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent.
"We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent of the LPA, with a 4 per cent model error," Mohapatra said.
According to the regional forecast, Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to experience below-normal rainfall during the season.
Providing the outlook for June, Mohapatra said rainfall is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country, at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some areas in Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula may, however, witness normal to above-normal rainfall.
The IMD also forecast above-normal temperatures for most regions during June. "Maximum temperatures will be above normal for most of the country, except for parts of Central, Northwest and East India. Minimum temperatures are also expected to remain mostly above normal," Mohapatra said.
The weather agency warned of an above-normal number of heatwave days in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are also likely to witness increased heatwave activity.
On oceanic conditions, Mohapatra said neutral ENSO conditions are transitioning towards El Nino, with the probability of El Nino conditions increasing to 82 per cent by June and crossing 90 per cent by July and August. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to persist throughout the monsoon season.
He further noted that rainfall in May has been four per cent above normal nationally, while cumulative seasonal rainfall up to May 27 stood one per cent above normal.
Mohapatra said the southwest monsoon advanced into the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of the normal onset date. It has since progressed into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep, with conditions remaining favourable for its arrival over Kerala and the northeastern states within the next week.
Meanwhile, the IMD on Thursday forecasted relief from severe heat across Northwest India over the next three days due to the influence of western disturbances and easterly winds, along with thunderstorms, gusty winds and hailstorm activity in several regions.
— ANI
Reader Comments
I'm genuinely worried about the heatwave warning for UP, Bihar, and Gujarat. My family is in Lucknow and last summer was brutal enough. The IMD should provide more localized alerts for vulnerable populations like elderly and children. Also, state governments need to set up cooling centers and ensure water availability in urban areas. 🌡️
Good to see the IMD being transparent about the ENSO transitioning to El Nino. But 90% of LPA with a 4% error margin? That's a pretty wide range. Let's hope the actual rainfall is on the higher side. Meanwhile, urban planners in cities like Bangalore and Hyderabad should start rainwater harvesting drives NOW, not wait for water scarcity to hit.
On a positive note, at least Northeast India is expected to get normal rainfall. That's a relief for the tea gardens and paddy farmers there. But I wish the IMD would also share more specific district-level predictions so people can plan accordingly. Also, heatwave warnings for Telangana and Tamil Nadu? That means AC bills are going to skyrocket for us common folks. 🥵
Respectfully, I think the government should invest more in cloud seeding and weather modification technologies if El Nino is going to become more frequent. We can't keep playing wait-and-watch with the monsoon every year. The 82% probability of El Nino by June is a wake-up call for long-term climate adaptation strategies in agriculture and water management.
Honestly, as someone living in Mumbai, we're used to heavy rains and flooding. A below-normal monsoon sounds like a break
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.