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IMD Predicts Below Normal Monsoon in 2026, Rainfall at 95-90% of Average

The India Meteorological Department forecasts the 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall to be below normal, at approximately 92% of the Long Period Average. This prediction comes as weak La Nina conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral states in the Pacific Ocean. Climate models suggest a potential shift to El Nino conditions during the monsoon season, which can influence rainfall patterns. The IMD also notes neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions currently, with a positive IOD likely to develop towards the end of the monsoon.

Key Points: IMD Forecasts Below Normal 2026 Monsoon Rainfall

  • 2026 monsoon likely below normal
  • Rainfall forecast at 92% of LPA
  • El Nino conditions may develop
  • Positive IOD likely by season's end
2 min read

IMD forecasts below normal monsoon in 2026, rainfall to be 95-90 pc of average

IMD predicts 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall to be 95-90% of long-term average, citing evolving ENSO and IOD conditions.

"The 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall... is most likely to be below normal - India Meteorological Department"

New Delhi, April 13

The 2026 southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country is most likely to be below normal or around 95-90 per cent of the Long Period Average, the India Meteorological Department said on Monday.

Releasing its Long Range Forecast for the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season rainfall, the IMD said that the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus-minus 5 per cent.

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole, based on the period of 1971-2020, is 87 cm.

The IMD said that it will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May.

On Sea Surface Temperature (SST) conditions, the IMD said that, at present, weak La Nina-like conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. "Atmospheric circulation features across the tropical Pacific remain consistent with weak La Nina-like conditions. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the development of El Nino conditions during the SW Monsoon season," it said.

El Nino and La Nina are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, representing periodic fluctuations in sea surface temperatures and trade winds in the tropical Pacific Ocean that alter global weather.

El Nino (warm phase) features weakening trade winds and warmer waters, causing wetter conditions in the US and droughts in Asia, while La Nina (cool phase) brings stronger winds and cooler waters.

The IMD said, at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present over the Indian Ocean, and the latest climate models forecast indicates that the positive IOD conditions are likely to develop towards the end of the southwest monsoon season.

As sea surface temperature (SST) conditions over the Pacific and the Indian Oceans are known to have a strong influence on the Indian monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the evolution of sea surface conditions over these Ocean basins, said the statement.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
It's impressive that the IMD can forecast this far in advance. The science behind tracking El Nino and IOD is complex. Hopefully, this lead time allows for better preparedness across states.
A
Ananya R
Every year it's either El Nino or La Nina. We need to move beyond just predictions and focus on building climate-resilient infrastructure. Our cities flood with normal rain, what will happen with erratic monsoons? Time for action.
V
Vikram M
My family in Maharashtra depends on the rains for our soyabean crop. 95-90% might not sound too bad, but the distribution matters more. If the rain comes late or stops early, it's a disaster. Fingers crossed for a good spatial spread. 🤞
K
Karthik V
Respectfully, while the IMD does great work, a forecast for 2026 seems too distant. A lot can change in the Pacific and Indian Oceans in two years. Let's focus on the upcoming monsoon and the updated forecast in May.
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Priya S
This is a wake-up call for all of us in urban areas too. We waste so much water. Rainwater harvesting should be mandatory in every society and building. We can't just rely on the monsoon gods anymore.

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