Morrison Warns: Delay on China's Indo-Pacific Influence Could Be Fatal

If attention not paid early, then it will be too late: Ex-Australian PM Morrison on China's growing influence in Indo-Pacific

Sydney, August 14

Speaking online at the Indo-Mediterranean Dialogues on Thursday, Morrison said Australia's geography gives it a unique strategic perspective, with the country having major coastlines facing both the Indian and Pacific oceans.

"We have the longest stretch of coastline on the Indian Ocean of any country in the world. But equally so, we have a similar coastline that borders the Pacific. And our economic future lies in both oceans," he said.

Morrison said strategic tensions around the Taiwan Strait, South China Sea and East China Sea had influenced defence decisions taken during his tenure, including the formation of the AUKUS security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.

However, he cautioned against allowing the Pacific security agenda to overshadow developments in the Indian Ocean.

"The Indian Ocean carries trade, energy, submarine cables, data and logistics between Europe, the Middle East and Asia," Morrison said, highlighting the region's importance and its proximity to several critical maritime chokepoints.

"If it is not paid attention to early, then it will be too late," he warned, referring to China's growing presence and influence in the Indian Ocean.

Morrison pointed to China's engagement with Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Myanmar as examples of its expanding footprint in the region, where they have invested in major strategic projects which provide Beijing greater access to the region, furthering its influence.

While acknowledging that much of China's involvement has been economic, he said Australia's experience in the South China Sea should serve as a warning.

"Our experience in the South China Sea tells us that that's where it starts. It's not where it ends," Morrison said.

He also highlighted India's growing awareness of the strategic and economic challenge posed by China, particularly the imbalance in bilateral trade.

"India is very awake to that threat," Morrison said, adding that New Delhi could have "a bigger beef with China on trade than the Americans do."

Morrison, who was among the key political architects of AUKUS, said he did not expect the arrangement to formally expand beyond Australia, the UK and the US.

"AUKUS will remain as it is, a tripartite arrangement," he said.

He said the first pillar of the partnership remains focused on developing Australia's nuclear-powered submarine capability and strengthening the collective submarine capacity of the three countries.

Morrison also underlined the importance of the rotational presence of US submarines in Western Australia, saying it would increase the American military presence in the Indian Ocean rather than concentrating it solely in the Pacific.

The second pillar of AUKUS, which focuses on advanced defence technologies, could provide greater opportunities for cooperation with other countries, he said.

Morrison identified Japan and potentially South Korea, which have recently experienced some growing friction in their ties with China, as possible partners for project-specific cooperation.

He also said cooperation with India was conceivable, although he noted that neither New Delhi nor Washington currently appeared to be actively seeking such an arrangement.

"Could that happen with India? Possibly," he said. "But I don't think India is asking nor is the US offering."

Morrison said the broader objective of AUKUS was deterrence -- maintaining a strategic balance that would allow countries across the Indo-Pacific to pursue economic development and prosperity without facing intimidation or coercion.

The former Australian prime minister also stated that India's growing strategic weight would be critical to maintaining a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, particularly as China's influence expands across both the Indian and Pacific oceans.

He argued that the emerging regional order is becoming increasingly distributed, giving countries such as India a greater role in shaping the strategic environment.

"India in particular", Morrison said, is taking on "a much more important role within geopolitics and certainly within the Indo-Pacific."

He said India's presence in the Quad gives the grouping a distinctive strategic character, while its growing economic, military and diplomatic influence could prove crucial to preventing any single power from dominating the region.

Morrison's remarks underline the increasingly central role of India in the evolving Indo-Pacific security architecture, as countries seek to strengthen partnerships and maintain strategic balance amid China's expanding regional footprint.

— ANI