IEA may be forced to release more strategic oil reserves if Brent stays elevated: Sparta Commodities June Goh
Singapore, July 25
With global crude oil prices now having crossed the USD 100 per barrel mark amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the International Energy Agency could release another batch of strategic petroleum reserves if prices remain elevated, Senior Oil Market Analyst at Sparta Commodities June Goh had said in an exclusive interview with.
Speaking to ANI earlier, Goh said the IEA had not yet exhausted the previously announced emergency release and suggested that sustained higher oil prices could prompt another coordinated intervention.
The IEA released the first batch of emergency oil reserves following its historic 400-million-barrel collective action announcement on March 11, 2026.
"At that point in time, they announced the 400 million barrels. We have not finished that allocation yet as well," Goh said, referring to the IEA's earlier announcement on releasing strategic petroleum reserves.
She added that stronger crude prices could become the trigger for another coordinated release by member countries.
"But I think with flat price getting stronger, it should be a trigger point for the second release of SPR, of which there is still a venture to be released," Goh said.
Her remarks assume greater significance as Brent crude has now moved above the USD 100 per barrel level, amid renewed supply concerns and heightened geopolitical risks.
According to Goh, several countries within the IEA framework still have room to contribute additional strategic reserves if required.
"I mean, Japan and Korea definitely has a lot more to spare. US still has, although... we heard that the caverns are getting a bit more dangerous on the SPR levels." she said.
Goh further indicated that the threshold for another coordinated release could be sustained prices above USD 95 per barrel.
"Which I think should be the base case now if oil price keeps to be above the $95 per barrel number," she noted.
Explaining why oil prices had remained supported despite earlier expectations of oversupply, Goh said the market had yet to fully account for the ongoing supply-side risks.
"Everyone seems to have forgotten that 1 billion barrels of inventory is lost. The world still needs to recover, not all, but at least part of this. Strategy Petroleum Reserves, IEA has announced 400 million barrels to be released. I think the actual count now is probably about to 200 million barrels that's actually released to the market, that also has to be refilled," she said.
She also warned that disruptions to critical shipping routes could further tighten crude supplies.
"And now with two potential places, Strait of Hormuz and the Bout Armandet both facing closure, you will get even more difficulties on the crude production side. Supply therefore remains curtailed... So a very long story short, I think we haven't priced this in entirely yet," Goh noted.
Her comments come at a time when oil markets are closely monitoring geopolitical developments and the possibility of coordinated action by the IEA should prices remain elevated above recent thresholds.
At the time of reporting, Brent crude was trading at USD 96.78 per barrel.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Interesting analysis from June Goh. The fact that only 200 million barrels from the 400 million announced have been released shows the IEA is playing a cautious game. But with Strait of Hormuz tensions, this could get worse before it gets better. For India, this means our inflation worries aren't going away anytime soon. The government needs to think about strategic petroleum reserves of our own.
The US SPR caverns getting dangerous is a real concern. We're drawing down reserves that took decades to build, and refilling at these elevated prices will be expensive. Japan and Korea have room, but how much can they really spare? This coordinated release strategy feels like a band-aid on a bullet wound. Geopolitical risks are the real story here.
Waiting at the petrol pump today and saw prices jump again. It's frustrating because this isn't about demand—it's purely geopolitical games. The IEA release might help temporarily, but the fundamental problem is supply disruption at key chokepoints. India should be building more solar and wind capacity rapidly. Every rupee spent on oil imports is a rupee we could invest in energy independence.
The forgotten 1 billion barrels of inventory loss June Goh mentioned is key. Markets have short memories. We consumed strategic reserves during COVID and the Ukraine war and haven't rebuilt them. Now with Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb threats, supply is genuinely tight. A second SPR release makes sense, but it's not a long-term fix. The world needs to drill more, conserve more, and diversify energy sources.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.