Government capex up 19% in Apr-May raises hopes of stronger cement demand in FY27: Report
New Delhi, July 20
Overall government capital expenditure by the Centre, states and central public sector enterprises increased 19 per cent year-on-year in April-May 2026, raising hopes of stronger cement demand in FY27 despite mixed demand trends and continued weakness in the housing sector, according to a report by Nuvama.
The report said the capex trajectory, which remained subdued during FY25 and FY26, has shown improvement in the first two months of FY27, supported by higher public spending across different levels of government.
It noted that central government capex rose 13 per cent year-on-year in April-May 2026, while state government capex increased 9 per cent during the same period. Capital expenditure by CPSEs, including departmental agencies, surged 26 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2.1 trillion in Q1FY27, while CPSE capex increased around 6 per cent year-on-year in June 2026.
Highlighting the improving spending trend, the report said, "With capex trajectory being steady in May-26, the higher capex allocation in the FY27E budget has raised hopes that demand in FY27 would be better YoY."
However, the brokerage pointed out that housing activity continues to remain weak. According to the report, pan-India residential launch volumes declined 8 per cent year-on-year in FY25, 4 per cent in FY26 and 14 per cent year-on-year in April-May 2026, indicating moderation in real estate activity.
Demand trends in the cement sector also remained uneven in July due to the onset of the monsoon season. The report said demand was healthy in the West and South, but subdued in other regions.
Cement prices also showed mixed trends across the country. According to Nuvama, prices declined by around Rs 5 per bag in the West and Central regions, increased by around Rs 8 per bag in Hyderabad, and remained broadly stable in the North and East.
The report said, "Our channel checks indicate that demand trends are varied across regions in Jul-26 on account of onset of the monsoon season. Cement prices have also shown mixed trends with decrease in prices in western and central regions, rise in Hyderabad and being broadly stable in the North and East."
On input costs, the brokerage noted that crude oil prices have eased from recent highs amid volatile geopolitical developments, but petcoke prices have not declined in the same proportion. Petcoke prices are currently stable at USD 133 per tonne, up around USD 20 per tonne from Q4FY26 but down USD 35 per tonne from the recent peak of USD 168 per tonne.
Nuvama said the impact of higher input costs is likely to be reflected starting late Q1FY27 and Q2FY27, adding that input cost trends, cement prices and housing and infrastructure demand would drive stock prices going forward.
— ANI
Reader Comments
As someone working in construction materials supply chain, I can confirm the southern markets are buzzing right now. Hyderabad prices up Rs 8 per bag is encouraging - but the west and central decline is a concern. Monsoon impact is temporary though, expect demand to pick up post-September. Let's hope the housing sector revives too! 🏗️
The 26% jump in CPSE capex is impressive - shows that PSUs are finally executing projects. But I'm skeptical about the housing numbers. 14% decline in launches during Apr-May 2026 reflects real stress in affordable housing segment. Government should consider GST reduction on cement to boost demand. Just my two paise. 💭
Interesting data from Nuvama - the capex growth is solid but uneven. Housing weakness is a structural issue in India right now. High input costs and stable petcoke at $133/tonne will squeeze margins. Need to see if the government can sustain this spending pace through the full fiscal year. Nifty infrastructure stocks might be worth watching. 📈
I built my house last year and saw cement prices fluctuate wildly. This report matches ground reality - prices stable in north but shooting up in Hyderabad. For common man like me, the housing sector weakness is actually good - may bring down property prices finally! But yes, infrastructure spending should continue for economic growth. 🏠
The 19% capex growth is decent, but I'm cautious. FY25 and FY26 saw subdued trajectories as mentioned - one good quarter doesn't make a trend. The real test will be Q2 and Q3 performance
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