Gold may correct 6-8% before rallying to USD 5,500+,over 12-15 months: Report
New Delhi, August 5
Gold may correct by up to 8 per cent in the near term before resuming its rally towards USD 5,500 over the next 12-15 months, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. said in its H1 2026 Precious Metals Outlook, advising investors to adopt a staggered accumulation strategy and remain patient.
MOFSL report highlighted a shift in the factors driving gold prices, noting that geopolitical conflicts no longer automatically translate into gains for the precious metal.
It has recommended a staggered accumulation strategy for long-term investors, noting "gold could witness a correction of 6-8% from current levels before targeting USD 4,800 (Rs 4,56,564.24), followed by USD 5,500+ (Rs 5,23,146.53) over a 12-15 month horizon."
On the domestic front, assuming USD/INR at 95.5, the brokerage house identifies accumulation levels between Rs 1,33,000-Rs 1,30,000, with medium-term targets of Rs 1,68,000 followed by Rs 1,93,000."
Gold started 2026 strongly on tariff uncertainty, robust ETF inflows, central bank buying and expectations of US Fed rate cuts. However, the narrative shifted in Q2 as tariffs and the US-Iran conflict fuelled inflation concerns, prompting markets to price in higher-for-longer rates, lifting real Treasury yields and the US dollar and weakening gold's safe-haven appeal.
"Gold's long-term investment case remains intact, but the coming year calls for patience over impulse," the brokerage house said flagging two major factors -- the direction of US inflation and the Fed's rate decisions under its new leadership.
Until real interest rates begin to fall meaningfully, gold could remain range-bound or face a further 6-8% correction in the near term. Investors may therefore consider staggered accumulation, buying in tranches on declines rather than attempting to time the market bottom.
"For those with a 12 to 15 month horizon, current weakness should be viewed as an entry opportunity rather than a reason to exit, given gold's structural support from central bank buying, fiscal deterioration in developed economies, and its enduring role as a currency debasement hedge," the report said. At the same time, the brokerage house recommended Silver investors to stay mindful of its added volatility, "given its dual role as both a precious and industrial metal tied to electrification demand." (ANI
— ANI
Reader Comments
My grandmother always said "Sona hai toh sab hai" (if you have gold, you have everything). This report gives me confidence to hold on to my family's gold investments even if there's a short-term correction. 12-15 months is nothing for long-term wealth building. 🙏
Interesting take on geopolitical conflicts no longer driving gold prices. Makes sense though - with tariffs and inflation concerns, even safe-haven assets are getting tricky to predict. I'll probably wait for the correction to buy some digital gold for my portfolio.
As someone who invests from abroad, this report is quite helpful. The USD/INR projection at 95.5 is also interesting - that would mean significant rupee depreciation. Gold in INR terms might actually outperform despite the USD correction. Worth considering for NRIs too.
The advice to be patient rather than impulsive is so crucial, especially with gold prices fluctuating the way they have been. I appreciate that they're not just saying "buy now" but actually suggesting a smart accumulation strategy. Silver's volatility warning is also much needed - it's been too unpredictable lately. 😅
I've been investing in gold ETFs for 5 years now. This kind of correction is normal. The key is to keep buying systematically on dips. Rs 1.33 lakh to Rs 1.30 lakh accumulation levels seem reasonable if we get there. Already set my alerts! 🎯
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