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Global Powers Forge Unexpected Alliances Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Dhruva Jaishankar highlighted the complex reality where nations in conflict still create economic exceptions to prevent global market collapse. He cited examples from the Russia-Ukraine war, Middle East tensions, and China's dominance in critical mineral processing. This pragmatism, he argued, leads to unexpected international arrangements even among rivals. The discussion at Raisina Dialogue 2026 centered on balancing geostrategic competition with unavoidable economic interdependence.

Key Points: Unexpected Global Arrangements in Energy & Geopolitics

  • Geopolitical rivals seek economic carve-outs
  • Global energy market stability is a key concern
  • Interdependence complicates strategic competition
  • Pragmatism overrides sanctions during crises
2 min read

"Going to see some very unexpected kinds of arrangements": ORF's Dhruva Jaishankar on global energy markets

ORF's Dhruva Jaishankar predicts unexpected international carve-outs to balance economic stability with strategic competition in global crises.

"We're going to see some very unexpected kinds of arrangements being made. - Dhruva Jaishankar"

New Delhi, March 6

Highlighting the complexities of global diplomacy, ORF America Executive Director Dhruva Jaishankar said the international community must prepare for "unexpected kinds of arrangements" as major powers attempt to balance geopolitical competition with global economic stability.

Speaking at Raisina Dialogue 2026 during a session titled 'Beyond Strategic Ambiguity: Rethinking Deterrence in the Taiwan Strait', Jaishankar addressed the evolving nature of international relations amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East.

He noted that even in high-tension environments, nations are likely to seek "carve outs" to prevent economic collapse.

"So I think we will see, whether it's the conflict as it goes on in the Middle East, whether it's now the fourth year of the Russia-Ukraine war, or even in the context of when China has 90% of the processing capacity for graphite, again, something that every economy needs, there are going to be, even in the midst of conflict, various kinds of carve outs given to balance global economic cultures on the one hand versus geostrategic competition on the other hand," Jaishankar said.

The foreign policy expert said this balancing act is an unavoidable consequence of the modern era, where strategic rivals remain economically interdependent.

"And I think that's just the reality that we are all going to have to contend with. So we're going to see some very unexpected kinds of arrangements being made," he added.

Dhruva Jaishankar also pointed to the pragmatism of the United States regarding energy security. He suggested that despite sanctions and strategic rivalries, Washington remains aware of the need to maintain stable global markets.

"Because, again, even in the height of a conflict, the US is conscious of the global energy market, oil particularly, and gas to some degree. So I think that's good. We're going to have to live with these contradictions in the face of crisis," he said.

The discussion, which explored the shift away from strategic ambiguity, featured a panel including Bonnie Glick of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Helena Legarda from the Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies, I-Chung Lai of the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation, and Jonas Parello-Plesner, Director of the Alliance of Democracies.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
The point about China controlling 90% of graphite processing is chilling. It shows true power isn't just military, it's controlling the supply chains for critical materials. The West's decoupling talk is just that—talk. When the rubber meets the road, economics wins.
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Priya S
Jaishankar sahab is spot on. Look at how India has managed to buy Russian oil despite pressure. It's realpolitik for survival. The common man needs affordable fuel and electricity. Global stability helps everyone, even if it means dealing with rivals.
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Rohit P
While I understand the need for pragmatism, there's a danger in normalizing these "carve outs." It sends a message that aggression can be offset by economic utility. Where do we draw the line between necessary compromise and rewarding bad behavior?
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Karthik V
This is why Atmanirbhar Bharat is so crucial. We cannot let our development be held hostage by any single country's monopoly, whether it's China for minerals or anyone else for energy. Self-reliance in critical sectors is the only long-term security.
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Michael C
Interesting to hear this from an Indian perspective. The US does walk a tightrope. But let's be honest, these "contradictions" often benefit the largest economies the most. Smaller nations get squeezed. The global system needs more fairness, not just stability.

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