Global AI investment $1 tln in 2026, to reach 1.4 pc global GDP by 2028: Goldman Sachs
New Delhi, August 16
Global investment in artificial intelligence is projected to reach around $1 trillion in 2026, with AI-related capital expenditure expected to remain robust in the near term, according to a research report by Goldman Sachs.
The investment is forecast to rise from 0.9 per cent of global GDP in 2026 to 1.3 per cent in 2027 and 1.4 per cent in 2028, suggesting that the AI buildout could continue to support capital spending over the next two years.
Goldman Sachs Research estimated that global AI-related investment would amount to about $1 trillion this year, including $581 billion in the US. The estimate is broader than the commonly cited projection of around $794 billion in capital expenditure by US hyperscalers, as it also incorporates AI investment by private companies, non-hyperscaler firms and companies outside the US.
The research estimates that the cumulative investment in AI since 2022 could reach $1.8 trillion by the end of 2026. Goldman Sachs said the pace and eventual scale of AI investment remain a key uncertainty for macroeconomic and financial markets, particularly as investors assess how high AI capital expenditure could rise as a share of GDP and when its growth could begin to slow.
The bank's projections indicate that AI investment in the US could increase from 1.8 per cent of GDP in 2026 to 2.5 per cent in 2027 and 2.8 per cent in 2028, while global AI investment would rise to 1.4 per cent of GDP by 2028.
Goldman Sachs said these levels remain within the historical range observed during previous general-purpose technology buildouts, when peak investment impulses typically reached 2 per cent-5 per cent of GDP. It also noted that consensus expectations for 2027 capital expenditure could prove conservative, leaving scope for upward revisions.
Near-term indicators point to continued strength in AI-related spending. Goldman Sachs examined indicators including semiconductor manufacturing equipment imports in Taiwan and South Korea, purchasing managers' indices, import prices, memory purchase prices and GPU rental prices.
The research found that these indicators are currently near the upper end of their ranges since 2022, providing a positive signal for AI capital expenditure growth.
However, Goldman Sachs cautioned that its estimates involve assumptions that are difficult to verify and carry some risk of double-counting, particularly where companies do not separately report financial leases and hardware capital expenditure. The bank therefore cross-checked its estimates using corporate earnings revisions, government investment data and global trade flows, with these approaches producing broadly similar estimates of around $1 trillion in global AI investment in 2026.
— ANI
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