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US-Iran Ceasefire: Expert Warns "Further Conflict Can't Be Ruled Out"

Foreign expert Kingshuk Chatterjee welcomes the US-Iran ceasefire but cautions it is fragile and further conflict remains possible. He notes the US strategic community advised against war and that President Trump's climbdown may help the pause endure. However, Israel is expected to continue its actions against Hezbollah in Lebanon, which could influence regional dynamics. The path to lasting peace requires significant confidence-building measures due to deep historical mistrust between America and Iran.

Key Points: US-Iran Ceasefire: Expert Warns of Future Conflict Risks

  • Ceasefire offers a pause to regroup
  • US strategic advice was against war
  • Israel likely to continue pushing against Hezbollah
  • Regime change in Iran is discarded
  • Trust between US and Iran remains very low
2 min read

'Further conflict can't be ruled out': Foreign expert on US-Iran ceasefire

Foreign expert Kingshuk Chatterjee analyzes the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, warning conflict could resume as Israel remains a key factor and trust is low.

"We are on the off ramp, but further conflict cannot be ruled out. - Kingshuk Chatterjee"

Kolkata, April 8

Foreign expert Kingshuk Chatterjee, while welcoming the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran on Wednesday, cautioned that though the countries are "off ramp, but further conflict can't be ruled out".

Talking to IANS, Chatterjee said: "Iran and Israel would probably be on the war path for sometime but right now all the sides would require a pause in order to regroup and recoup."

According to him, it has not been the advice of the strategic community in the USA that the country should involve itself in this particular war.

"Now that US President Donald Trump has climbed down, one hopes that the ceasefire will prove a little enduring," he said.

However, he cautioned: "We are on the off ramp, but further conflict cannot be ruled out."

Chatterjee also highlighted that the idea of regime change in Iran "has been completely discarded".

Moreover, he called Israel "quite another matter".

"Israel would want to keep pushing in Lebanon. It would want to push Hezbollah beyond a point where it will cease to be of any use anywhere," he said.

Also, he added, "If Iran begins to bounce back, Israel would keep on as it calls 'moving the lawn'."

While reiterating that the conflict might not be completely over, the foreign expert said: "It looks like America wants off for the time being."

Further, Chatterjee mentioned that both America and Iran have had quite a lot of "bad blood" in the past.

"It is very unlikely that it would result in a new dawn of hope readily. But if both sides play their cards right, then there is always a possibility of healing."

He explained that first, both the US and Iran would need confidence-building measures. "America has time and again, having embarked on negotiations, broken back into a conflict," he said.

"So Iran needs to be convinced that America means to seriously stick to the path of peace for the time being," he added.

"The level of trust that both (US and Iran) have towards each other is pretty small," he noted.

Moreover, Chatterjee feels that America is not in a position where it can continue to fight a country like Iran. "It (Iran) is not Venezuela; there is not going to be a walkover. So it is very unlikely that America would want to get on the path immediately," he said.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
The phrase "moving the lawn" for Israel's strategy is chilling. This temporary pause feels like just that—a pause. The underlying issues aren't resolved. Hoping for sustained peace, but the track record isn't great.
P
Priya S
As an Indian, my main concern is the impact on oil prices and our economy. Every time there's tension there, petrol prices here shoot up. This ceasefire needs to hold for the sake of global stability and our common people's budgets.
V
Vikram M
Chatterjee's analysis is spot on. The US has a habit of starting negotiations and then breaking them. Iran has every reason to be distrustful. Real peace needs consistent, long-term commitment from both sides, not just political posturing.
R
Rohit P
While I appreciate the expert's view, I feel the article gives too much weight to a single perspective. The situation is more complex, and other regional players like Saudi Arabia and their stance are equally important. A more balanced report would have been better.
K
Kavya N
"Bad blood" is an understatement. The trust deficit is massive. India has maintained good relations with both nations. Perhaps our diplomacy can play a quiet, constructive role in building those confidence measures he talks about. Jai Hind!

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