Semiconductors and Rare Earths to Dominate Trump-Xi Trade Talks

The report noted that trade and technology are likely to remain at the centre of negotiations as both countries attempt to recalibrate economic ties amid rising geopolitical tensions and supply-chain realignments.

"Trade and technology are expected to dominate discussions during the U.S.-China summit, with both sides prioritising strategic product categories tied to industrial competitiveness and supply-chain security," the report stated.

According to the report, the United States is expected to push for higher Chinese purchases of key American products including aircraft, soybeans and beef, while also seeking deeper trade and investment cooperation.

China, on the other hand, is likely to focus on easing US restrictions on advanced semiconductors and chip-making technologies, using technology access and critical minerals as major leverage points in broader economic negotiations.

The report highlighted that US exports of electronic integrated circuits to China continue to reflect the strategic importance of semiconductor trade despite tighter export controls.

US semiconductor exports to China declined sharply from USD 12 billion in 2021 to USD 5 billion in 2023 amid escalating technology restrictions and licensing requirements. However, exports partially recovered to nearly USD 10 billion in 2025, indicating continued interdependence between the two economies in high-value technology supply chains.

"The rebound indicates that China remains a critical destination for U.S. semiconductor-related products even under a more restrictive policy environment," the report said.

At the same time, the report observed that fluctuations in semiconductor trade underscore the growing influence of geopolitical considerations on commercial technology exchanges.

On the critical minerals front, the report said US imports of rare earth metals from China remain strategically significant despite relatively low trade values due to China's dominant position in global refining capacity.

US imports of rare earth metals from China increased from USD 11 million in 2021 to USD 22 million in 2023 before plunging to USD 4 million in 2024 following tighter Chinese export controls and supply-chain disruptions. Imports recovered modestly to USD 7 million in 2025. Rare earth minerals remain crucial inputs for semiconductors, electric vehicles, defence systems and aerospace manufacturing.

"The sharp fluctuations reinforce U.S. concerns over supply-chain dependence, while also highlighting China's ability to leverage critical mineral exports within broader trade and technology negotiations," the report added.

The report also noted that the broader US-China trade relationship continues to undergo structural changes driven by tariffs, export controls and supply-chain diversification strategies.

The report stated that total US-China goods trade declined from USD 620 billion in 2015 to USD 434 billion in 2025, reflecting a long-term decoupling trend between the world's two largest economies.

- ANI