From Bonhomie to Brinkmanship: India-US Ties Tested in Trump's Second Term

The relationship, once projected as being rooted in shared democratic values and long-term strategic interests, increasingly reflected changing political priorities and the variable approach of US President Donald Trump. Despite repeated affirmations of closeness, underlying disagreements became harder to overlook.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Washington on February 12, weeks after President Trump assumed office on January 20, was seen as an attempt to stabilise relations and set a constructive agenda. Talks during the visit focused on reviving negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement and expanding overall commerce, briefly raising expectations of progress.

That optimism did not last.

The US administration's inability to deliver a swift resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict within its first 100 days altered the wider geopolitical environment. Against this backdrop, strains in India-US relations became more pronounced.

From public bonhomie to trade confrontation

The shift was particularly visible when compared with earlier years. In September 2019, President Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi jointly addressed a crowd of more than 50,000 at the 'Howdy Modi' event in Houston, projecting personal warmth and political camaraderie. Trump referred to India as a close friend, while PM Modi described him as a "true friend in the White House".

By 2025, that phase appeared firmly in the past.

In August, trade tensions intensified, with the US imposing tariffs of up to 50 per cent on Indian exports. The move marked a decisive turn from symbolic public goodwill to confrontational trade measures, driven by concerns over trade imbalances, domestic political considerations and differing negotiating approaches.

Signs of friction had surfaced earlier. In 2018, President Trump criticised India's import duties on Harley-Davidson motorcycles as "unfair". This was followed by the introduction of "America First" tariffs, including 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminium, and India's subsequent removal from the US Generalised System of Preferences, affecting exports worth billions of dollars.

India-Pakistan issue adds strain

Tensions were further complicated by developments related to India-Pakistan relations. President Trump repeatedly stated that the US had played a mediating role in securing a ceasefire between the two neighbours after the April 22 Pahalgam attack that killed 26 civilians, most of them tourists.

On May 10, Trump said he, along with Vice President JD Vance, had stepped in to secure an "immediate ceasefire". While Pakistan's position evolved over time, India consistently rejected the assertion.

"PM Modi told President Trump clearly that during this period, there was no talk at any stage on subjects like India-US trade deal or US mediation between India and Pakistan," Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.

"Talks for cease of military action took place directly between India and Pakistan through established military channels and on the insistence of Pakistan. Prime Minister Modi underscored that India has never accepted mediation in the past and will never do."

Trade talks falter despite early hopes

At the start of 2025, there were renewed expectations that the two sides could conclude a comprehensive trade agreement, with ambitions to raise bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030. Discussions during PM Modi's US visit briefly reinforced those hopes.

However, on July 30, President Trump announced an additional 25 per cent tariff on Indian goods. This was followed by the announcement of a trade agreement with Pakistan. On August 6, Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on Indian exports to 50 per cent, placing India among the most heavily taxed US trading partners.

A cryptic signal on geopolitical alignments

Uncertainty deepened on September 5 when President Trump posted a photograph of PM Modi alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin, accompanied by a pointed message.

"Looks like we've lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest, China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!"

The post came amid heightened trade tensions and growing concern in Washington over India's continued energy imports from Russia and unresolved tariff disputes.

'Special relationship' reaffirmed

Within a day, President Trump attempted to downplay speculation about a rupture, emphasising the personal rapport and broader strategic ties between the two countries.

"I'll always be friends with (Narendra) Modi... He's a great prime minister. He's great. But I just don't like what he's doing at this particular moment. But India and the United States have a special relationship. There's nothing to worry about. We just have moments on occasion."

The remarks were made even as disagreements persisted over trade policies and India's purchase of Russian oil.

Rice, tariffs and domestic politics

Trade rhetoric escalated further when President Trump warned of possible additional tariffs on Indian rice imports, alleging that India was 'dumping' rice in the US market. He suggested that tariffs could "easily resolve the problem".

The comments were made during a White House roundtable with representatives from the farming sector and senior officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. At the same meeting, Trump announced a USD 12-billion federal assistance package for American farmers.

During the discussion, Trump questioned India's trade practices.

"India, tell me about India. Why is India allowed to do that? They gotta pay tariffs. Do they have an exemption on rice?"

When informed, "No sir, we're still working on their trade deal", Trump replied, "But they shouldn't be dumping. I mean, I heard that. I heard that from others. They can't do that."

Strategic reassurances continue

Despite trade frictions, the US continued to underline India's strategic importance. The US Embassy in India quoted President Trump on X as saying: "India is home to one of the world's oldest civilizations. It is an amazing country, and a very important strategic partner for America in the Indo-Pacific region. We have a great friend in PM Modi."

Diplomatic engagement maintained

According to official statements, diplomatic engagement remained active. A recent phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump covered bilateral ties as well as regional and global issues. The conversation followed PM Modi's summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin and coincided with renewed international efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict through an expanded peace plan proposed by Trump.

Trade negotiations were also discussed, including US demands for greater access to Indian markets for agricultural products such as corn and soybean. PM Modi later described the interaction as "warm and engaging".

A year of mixed signals

As the year draws to a close, India-US relations reflect a complex balance of cooperation and contention. Strategic dialogue has continued, but sharp trade disputes and political unpredictability have remained persistent challenges.

Even as some US lawmakers caution that aggressive trade measures could strain ties with a key Indo-Pacific partner, both governments maintain that the relationship remains too significant to be derailed.

For New Delhi and Washington, 2025 underscored that the partnership is still evolving, shaped as much by global geopolitical shifts as by leadership styles and domestic priorities.

- ANI