Final resolution of US-Iran talks may take more than 60 days: S&P Global Energy's Tang
New Delhi, June 23
The final resolution of ongoing US-Iran discussions may take longer than the current 60-day timeline as several geopolitical issues remain unresolved despite signs of recovery in shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, Benjamin Tang, Director and Global Head of Liquid Bulk, Commodities at Sea, S&P Global Energy, toldon Tuesday.
"But yes, there is a chance and maybe so that these discussions will take more than 60 days before we can bring an end," Tang told ANI when asked whether the current 60-day peace window could be extended.
Tang said the agreement currently allows for discussions to continue beyond the initial timeframe if required.
"The 60 days, there is a clause in both bilateral agreements to extend the 60-day discussion," he said.
The S&P Global executive said several important issues remain unresolved and could influence the pace of negotiations.
"There are many things that are yet to be decided," Tang said.
Referring to the key challenges facing negotiators, he added: "I think the key one is what's the nuclear situation going to be, other things around Lebanon, about the different attacks and how the responses see."
Tang said these issues remain central to the future of the discussions.
"Those are key issues that it's not clear whether 60 days is enough to resolve them thoroughly," he said.
Despite the uncertainties, Tang said there have been encouraging signs in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy trade.
"We have seen transits go up in the last week, so we are now at roughly averaging about 30 transits per day, compared to 12 in the last few months," he said.
However, he cautioned that traffic levels remain significantly below normal.
"This is still a far cry from the 135 (vessels) that we saw before the war," Tang said.
He noted that several operational and commercial issues still need to be addressed, including shipping approvals, insurance costs and future arrangements governing transit through the waterway.
"So positive signs, but still uncertainties and details to sort through," he said.
On Iranian crude exports, Tang said tanker activity has picked up in recent days.
"In the last week, with the removal of the US blockade, we have seen a lot of Iranian tankers start to move out," he said.
According to Tang, at least 12 Iranian tankers have exited in recent days, helping exports recover close to pre-war levels.
"Our estimate is about 1.5 million barrels per day for the month of June. So that's similar to the way they were pre-war," he said.
He added that many of the cargoes now reaching markets had been loaded before the disruption and that questions remain about how quickly Iranian production can fully ramp up.
Tang also highlighted India's response to the crisis, saying the country has demonstrated resilience by rapidly securing alternative crude supplies and diversifying sourcing options.
He noted that Russian, Brazilian, West African and US crude grades have become important parts of India's import portfolio, while refiners continue to balance supply security with cost considerations.
Despite the recent improvement in vessel traffic and crude flows, Tang said the progress of US-Iran discussions will remain a key factor for energy markets, given its implications for regional stability, global oil flows and energy security.
— ANI
Reader Comments
The Strait of Hormuz is literally the lifeline for global energy markets. From India's perspective, any instability there pushes up petrol and diesel prices immediately — common people like auto drivers and farmers suffer the most. I appreciate that our government has been proactive in securing alternative sources, but 12 transits per day versus 135 normal? That's a massive gap. Hope the negotiations don't fall apart completely. 🤞
Honestly, this feels like déjà vu. The US-Iran tensions have been going on for decades now. Every time there's a 'peace window,' it gets extended because nobody wants to blink first. India should focus on building strategic petroleum reserves and investing in renewable energy — we can't keep relying on geopolitically unstable regions for our energy needs. Otherwise, we'll always be at the mercy of these talks.
Good to see Iranian tankers moving again — at least 12 have exited recently. But the key question is whether Iranian production can actually ramp up quickly. Pre-war they were doing 1.5 million barrels per day, and June estimates match that. But are these just pre-loaded cargoes or genuine new production? Also, the nuclear issue and Lebanon situation Tang mentioned are massive hurdles. 60 days seems optimistic for such complex geopolitics.
Tang makes a crucial point about shipping approvals and insurance costs — these practical details often get overlooked in grand geopolitical discussions. For global trade to resume properly, not just the political will but also commercial viability needs to be restored. India's diversification strategy is smart, but I wonder how long they can sustain it if tensions persist. The 30 transits per day is an improvement, but still a far cry from normalcy.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.