Elevated oil prices could drag India's growth to 6%, below IMF forecast of 6.5%: Gopinath
New Delhi, June 3
India's economic growth, projected at 6.5 per cent by the International Monetary Fund, could slow closer to 6 per cent as elevated oil prices continue to weigh on the economy, former IMF Deputy Managing Director and Chief Economist Gita Gopinath told.
According to Gopinath, the impact of higher oil prices is likely to persist into next year.
"We are not going to see the price of oil come down all the way very quickly. It's going to take probably till the middle of next year for oil to come back to say $70 or $75 a barrel. So there is going to be an effect lasting into next year," she said.
She said higher energy costs would affect consumption and investment, leading to slower economic growth than the IMF's current projection.
Gopinath also cautioned that the outlook could worsen if tensions in West Asia continue longer and disrupt oil supplies. She said markets are underestimating the possibility of a prolonged conflict.
"If this continues for another month, we're looking at oil prices that could go up to like $120 and $140 a barrel and could stay there for much longer. In that scenario, we could have global growth, which is now projected at 3.1 per cent, going down to say 2.5 per cent and even closer to 2 per cent," Gopinath said.
She noted that such a scenario would put greater pressure on India's growth prospects.
On policy measures, Gopinath stressed the need for supply-side reforms to reduce dependence on imported energy through greater use of renewable and nuclear power. In addition, she said, improving the ease of doing business could help attract investment.
"Having a positive story on AI in terms of the fact that AI can be net positive for India. These are the kinds of actions that would help increase interest in India as a destination for investment capital and that would also take the pressure off the rupee," she said.
Gopinath further said that shifting global trade patterns could create opportunities for India, particularly as the country expands trade ties and signs more agreements, including with the European Union. This, she said, could help India strengthen its role in global supply chains.
— ANI
Reader Comments
Honestly, this is why we need to fast-track our renewable energy projects. Every time there's a conflict in West Asia, India's economy gets nervous. But I also think the government's push for EVs and solar power is a step in the right direction. The AI angle she mentioned is interesting—if we can leverage technology to optimize energy use, that could help too. Let's hope the geopolitical situation stabilizes soon, otherwise we're in for a tough year. 🌞
Bahut accha analysis hai Gopinath ji ka. But I think the IMF forecasts are usually a bit optimistic. India has shown resilience before, and we can manage this too. The key is to control inflation and keep the rupee stable. I'm a bit worried about the "ease of doing business" part—bureaucracy is still a big issue. If we can streamline approvals and reduce red tape, maybe we can attract more investment. But this oil price thing is like a dark cloud over our growth story.
Oil prices are a global issue, but India needs to act locally. Why are we still so dependent on imported energy? We have plenty of sunlight and wind potential. Also, her point about trade agreements with the EU is smart—diversifying our trade partners can reduce risk. But I wish the government would do more to stabilize fuel prices for the common person. The common man is feeling the pinch every time they fill up their scooters or cars. 😔
I think Gopinath's warning about $120-$140 oil is a bit alarmist, but it's a legitimate risk. India's growth story is impressive, but it's vulnerable to external shocks. I'm watching the West Asia situation closely. If the conflict expands, we could see global supply chains disrupted. That said, India's digital economy and services sector are strong—maybe
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