Maha Council Polls: Mahayuti Eyes 8 Seats, Spotlight on Uddhav's Future

According to a press note issued by the Commission, the terms of office of nine sitting members will expire on May 13, necessitating the elections.

The members set to retire are Sanjay Kishanrao Kenekar, Neelam Diwakar Gorhe, Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray, Sandeep Diwakar Joshi, Dadarao Yadavrao Keche, Amol Ramkrushna Mitkari, Ranjitsinh Vijaysinh Mohite-Patil, Rajesh Dhondiram Rathod and Shashikant Jaywantrao Shinde.

The Commission said the notification for the election will be issued on April 23, while the last date for filing nominations is April 30.

Scrutiny of nomination papers will take place on May 2, and the last date for withdrawal of candidature has been fixed as May 4, it said.

Polling, if required, will be held on May 12 between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., followed by the counting of votes at 5 p.m. the same day. The election process will be completed before May 13, the Commission added.

With the Mahayuti having a massive surplus of 235 votes, it can comfortably win eight seats, comprising the BJP five, Shiv Sena two and NCP one. And, with 46 MLAs currently in the MVA camp comprising Shiv Sena(UBT) 20, Congress 16 and NCP(SP) 10, the opposition can elect one candidate, provided there is no cross-voting or defection. Based on the current strength of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, to secure a victory, a candidate requires 29 first-preference votes.

However, state political circles are abuzz with one primary question: whether Shiv Sena(UBT) chief and former Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray seeks another term in the Upper House. The Congress party has staked a claim over one seat.

Congress Legislative Party leader Vijay Wadettiwar said the MVA partners, including Shiv Sena(UBT) and NCP(SP), should leave the seat for Congress as it had extended its support to Sharad Pawar in the Rajya Sabha elections. Historically, members of the Thackeray family refrained from contesting direct elections. This changed in 2019 when Aaditya Thackeray won the Worli Assembly seat, becoming the first from the family to serve as a public representative.

Following the 2019 Assembly elections, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition was formed, and Uddhav Thackeray was appointed Chief Minister despite not holding a seat in either House of the legislature. Under constitutional mandates, Thackeray was required to become a member of the state legislature within six months. Consequently, in May 2020, he was elected unopposed to the Legislative Council. His current term is set to expire on May 13, leading to intense speculation regarding his next move. Along with that, the term of either of the other members will also expire.

Following Eknath Shinde's rebellion, which led to his resignation as Chief Minister, Uddhav Thackeray had initially announced his intention to resign from his Legislative Council seat. However, citing the four years remaining in his term at the time, he opted to stay on.

Observers note that Thackeray has not been particularly active in the Upper House since the change in government. His attendance is typically limited to a few appearances per session. Recently, however, he participated in the discussion on the condolence motion for Ajit Pawar during the ongoing Budget Session.

Shiv Sena(UBT) spokesperson and MP Sanjay Raut had previously suggested a formula whereby Sharad Pawar will represent the alliance in the Rajya Sabha and Uddhav Thackeray in the Legislative Council. This arrangement saw Sharad Pawar elected unopposed to the Rajya Sabha with Congress support. It is widely believed that Congress' support for the MVA's council seat remains contingent on Thackeray himself being the candidate.

While the Shiv Sena(UBT) is pushing for Thackeray to contest, the Shinde-led Shiv Sena may attempt to complicate his path by fielding an additional candidate. Although the MVA holds 17 surplus votes beyond the required quota, the ruling alliance may still try to ensure that Thackeray's re-election is far from a "walkover".

According to observers, the MVA's ability to re-elect Thackeray depends entirely on the 16 Congress MLAs and 10 NCP(SP) MLAs staying united. If even a small handful of these 46 MLAs are "persuaded" to vote for a Mahayuti candidate, Thackeray's seat -- once considered safe -- could be pushed into a risky second preference counting round. If the Shinde-led Shiv Sena decides to field a third candidate (or the Mahayuti fields a ninth), they would try to seek the 19 surplus votes of the MVA. Since the Council election uses a secret ballot, the MVA's 19 "extra" votes are the primary target for political engineering.

Against this backdrop, the final decision now rests with Uddhav Thackeray, whose choice will significantly impact the MVA's strategy for the elections.

- IANS