China's Patience Wanes as Pakistan Fails CPEC Security, Funds, Deadlines

Islamabad is under immense pressure to deliver on its commitments relating to the CPEC for multiple reasons. It has not been able to raise enough funds for the completion of the project. On the other hand, it has been an ongoing battle with the Balochistan Nationalist Army (BLA) and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Both these groups have been detrimental to the project, and this has made matters hard for the Pakistanis.

China has flagged several issues relating to the project and raised safety concerns regarding Balochistan. China pointed out that road safety across Balochistan remains a major concern, and Pakistan has done little to fix it. An official said that the CPEC, which is an ambitious project, remains far from complete. There is no proper road connectivity, and the flagship assets of the CPEC, such as the Gwadar Port and Gwadar Airport, have not been completed as yet.

Officials say that Pakistan has been buying time from China, but is unable to complete the project in time. Further, Pakistan has not been able to give any security guarantee, and this had once prompted the Chinese to offer Pakistan its soldiers to guard the project. However, Pakistan had refused the offer and stated that it did not want foreign soldiers on its soil.

While Pakistan had made security guarantees, Indian agencies have learnt that the situation is collapsing rapidly and is going out of control. Both the BLA and TTP have warned that they would up their ante and ensure that foreign investments are targeted. The people of Balochistan complain that the natural resources from their region are being taken away, and the benefits are reaped only by the people in mainland Pakistan.

At the 7th round of the Pakistan-China Foreign Ministers' Strategic Dialogue, Beijing stated that the manner in which the project is being implemented does not make economic sense. Since the project's inception, significant losses have been incurred, largely due to the region's poor security and violence.

Intelligence assessments say that Pakistan will not be able to deliver on its commitment. Terror incidents are bound to go up in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. The bigger concern for Beijing is that Pakistan has not been able to provide security to both its citizens and assets in these regions. Officials say that Beijing has made it clear to Pakistan that it would have to fulfil its commitments, while also adding that a high-level delegation would visit the region to take stock of the situation.

Further, China has also said that all future funding would be subject to transparency by Pakistan and compliance. These are two fronts apart from security that Pakistan has miserably failed on, officials point out.

Pakistan has also failed to give proper answers to China regarding its mines and minerals contract with the United States. When the deal was signed between Pakistan and the US, Beijing had raised objections with Islamabad, while seeking clarity. Pakistan has not yet been able to provide any details, and this has irked China.

Further, China has also expressed unhappiness with Pakistan regarding its relations with Afghanistan. Ties between the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan have hit a new low. Pakistan has been planning a new wave of strikes in Afghanistan, and this has upset the Chinese. It was Beijing that insisted on Afghanistan's participation in the CPEC 2.0 project. Beijing has told Pakistan that it has to normalise ties with Afghanistan immediately, as it wants the CPEC 2.0 to progress smoothly.

An official said that Pakistan is walking a tight rope now. While it may be able to fulfil many of its commitments, it would find it next to impossible to make security guarantees. The TTP is already planning a major expansion, and if this goes through, officials assess that the outfit would be much more lethal. The BLA, too, is not backing down, and Pakistan is unable to do anything about it.

The Pakistan army has found itself in an embarrassing situation several times during 2025. Unable to fight these outfits, it has even roped in the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and Lashkar-e-Taiba to battle the BLA and TTP. Both outfits have found very little success, officials say.

Indian agencies say that the increasing frustration that has set in would lead to the army indulging in large-scale atrocities against the people of Balochistan. This, in turn, would only worsen the situation, and eventually the CPEC would be the casualty, another official said.

- IANS