Container traffic to grow 7-9% as major ports outpace non-majors; POL, coal and iron ore trends diverge
New Delhi, July 19
India's port sector is entering a differentiated growth phase, with container volumes emerging as the strongest driver while coal traffic declines and POL and iron ore post moderate gains.
According to a research report by Motilal Oswal Financial Services, "Container traffic is expected to remain a key growth driver for Indian ports, supported by favourable macroeconomic conditions, rising domestic consumption, and greater adoption of containerisation, with volumes projected to expand at a 7-9% CAGR over FY26-FY28," the brokerage said.
The brokerage expects private players to gain disproportionately. "While the industry growth rate is expected to be 4-5% over the medium term, both APSEZ and JSWINFRA are set for sustained growth of 2-3x the industry, supported by continued organic and inorganic expansions and integrated logistics solutions," the brokerage said.
Policy support is providing the tailwind. Under NMP 2.0, the government has identified 44 brownfield port infrastructure projects--including terminals, berths, and jetties--for monetisation through PPP models aiming to unlock INR 1.2 trillion during FY26-FY30. The larger ambition comes from Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047, which "aims to develop six mega ports with world-class infrastructure and boost India's total port handling capacity from 2,800 MTPA to 10,000 MTPA by 2047," according to the brokerage.
FY26 data shows the divergence between major and non-major ports. India's major ports delivered strong performance in FY26, with cargo volumes rising ~7% YoY to 915 MMT, driven by healthy growth in both overseas (+6.6% YoY) and coastal (+8% YoY) traffic. POL & crude led with 16% YoY growth, while coal and containers also posted robust gains. In contrast, "non-major ports reported modest growth, with cargo volumes increasing ~1.4% YoY to 753 MMT in FY26," the report said.
Commodity mix is shifting. Coal traffic is likely to "post a compounding decline of 2-4%" as domestic production and renewables rise, while "iron ore traffic is expected to recover at a 5-7% CAGR during FY26-FY28" on higher coastal movement. "POL traffic is projected to clock a moderate 2-4% CAGR over FY26-FY28, driven by stable fuel demand but moderated by improving fuel efficiency."
India's location adds to the opportunity. Motilal said, "Aided by 20,275km of national waterways across 24 states, the sector benefits from its strategic location in the Indian Ocean. This positioning aligns India with 80% of the global maritime oil trade, underscoring its potential to become a leading maritime player."
On valuations, Motilal expects Adani Ports to deliver strong earnings momentum. The brokerage forecasts revenue to grow at 17% compounded annually, EBITDA at 18% and PAT at 22% between FY26 and FY28. For JSWINFRA, it projects volume growth of 19% compounded annually, with revenue rising 39%, EBITDA 34% and APAT 31% over the same period.
"India is well-positioned to emerge as a global maritime hub," the report said. However, it cautioned that risks remain. Key challenges include geopolitical tensions, rising competition from private and regional ports, volatility in global trade, and uncertainty around policy and regulation.
— ANI
Reader Comments
The focus on containerisation and the Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 is ambitious, but I'm a bit skeptical. 10,000 MTPA capacity by 2047 sounds huge, but we need to see how the PPP model works in practice. The recent performance of major ports vs non-major ports shows a worrying gap—7% growth vs just 1.4%? That's a red flag for regional equity.
Good news for logistics and trade. But the decline in coal traffic is inevitable with growing renewables. We should also focus on green ports and reducing emissions. India's strategic location in the Indian Ocean is a massive advantage—80% of global maritime oil trade passes by, and we must capitalise on it! 🙌
The report highlights strong growth for Adani Ports and JSWINFRA, but we must ensure that this doesn't lead to monopolistic control. Private players are fine, but the government should keep a check on tariffs and ensure fair competition for smaller operators. Also, the risk of geopolitical tensions is real—we need to diversify our trade routes.
Impressive projections from Motilal Oswal. I like the idea of India becoming a global maritime hub. But I wonder about the practical challenges—rising competition from regional ports in Southeast Asia could be a factor. Also, the coal decline is a positive sign for the environment, but we need to ensure a just transition for workers in that sector.
The policy support under NMP 2.0 and the mega port vision is a step in the right direction. But let's not forget the ground realities—many ports still struggle
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.