Container traffic to drive growth at Indian ports up to 9% CAGR through FY28: Motilal Oswal
New Delhi, July 17
Container traffic is expected to remain a key growth driver for Indian ports, supported by favourable macroeconomic conditions, rising domestic consumption, and greater adoption of containerization, with volumes projected to expand at a 7-9 per cent CAGR over FY26-FY28.
According to a Motilal Oswal report, the expansion in container volumes will diverge significantly from other commodities. Coal traffic is likely to post a compounding decline of 2-4 per cent as higher domestic coal production, renewable energy adoption, and import substitution reduce thermal coal imports, although coastal coal movement is expected to remain resilient.
Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL) traffic is projected to clock a moderate 2-4 per cent CAGR over FY26-FY28. The report noted that this trajectory is "driven by stable fuel demand but moderated by improving fuel efficiency and increasing use of alternative energy sources."
Meanwhile, iron ore traffic is expected to recover at a 5-7 per cent CAGR during FY26-FY28, supported by higher coastal transportation to domestic steel plants and increased imports amid elevated domestic ore prices, despite relatively subdued export demand.
The report noted that the projections followed a strong performance in FY26, during which India's major ports delivered healthy numbers. Cargo volumes rose approximately 7 per cent year-on-year to 915 MMT, driven by healthy growth in both overseas (+6.6% YoY) and coastal (+8% YoY) traffic.
POL and crude, holding a 30 per cent share, led growth with a 16 per cent YoY rise, while coal and container traffic recorded gains of 21 per cent and 10 per cent, respectively.
In contrast, non-major ports reported modest growth, with cargo volumes increasing roughly 1.4 per cent YoY to 753 MMT in FY26. POL and crude volumes remained stable, while fertilizer volumes rebounded strongly by 52 per cent.
The report stated that "with focused policy support, private investments, and infrastructure development under initiatives such as Sagarmala and the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047, India is well-positioned to emerge as a global maritime hub."
The report further added that "addressing challenges related to policy delays, connectivity gaps, and environmental concerns will be the key to unlocking the sector's full potential."
— ANI
Reader Comments
The 7-9% CAGR prediction looks promising! I really hope Sagarmala and the Maritime Amrit Kaal Vision 2047 focus on green ports and sustainability. Reducing coal imports is also great for the environment. But I worry about the red tape – our major ports still face so many bureaucratic hurdles. Let's hope execution matches ambition. 🌊🚢
Interesting data. I'm a trade analyst in Mumbai and the divergence between coal decline and container growth is very telling. India's energy transition is real, though slower than some hope. The 52% rebound in fertilizer traffic at non-major ports also deserves more attention – seems like those smaller ports are becoming critical for food security logistics.
I work in the shipping industry in Chennai, and honestly, the 21% rise in coal traffic in FY26 feels contradictory to the long-term decline projection. We're still heavily dependent on coal for base load power. The real story here is how quickly we can build out renewable storage to actually reduce imports. Otherwise these CAGR projections are just wishful thinking.
A 7% CAGR over three years in containerized cargo would put India on par with some of the fastest growing economies for port traffic. The key challenge mentioned in the report – "policy delays" – is spot on. As a logistics consultant, I've seen projects like the Vadhavan port get stuck for years. Let's aim for realistic timelines and better private sector collaboration. 🚢
The 16% YoY growth in POL and crude shows we're still an oil-dependent economy despite all the green talk. Also, non-major
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