Assam's "3G" Gogoi Trio Challenges BJP in Crucial Upper Assam Polls

The NDA had swept 41 of the region's 56 seats in the last Assembly election, held before the 2023 delimitation exercise. The redrawing of constituencies has altered the electoral map, with reports suggesting a reduction in the number of Muslim-influenced segments. Whether the ruling alliance can translate this structural advantage into electoral gains, however, remains uncertain in the face of anti-incumbency and strong local loyalties.

The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were conducted after the Election Commission completed the delimitation process. Thursday's Assembly election in Assam will, therefore, be the first state-level test of the new boundaries. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma enters the contest with a degree of confidence, following strong results in recent panchayat polls that indicated a rise in vote share. The NDA is expected to benefit from the reconfiguration of constituencies in Upper Assam, which could reshape traditional voting patterns.

The region comprises ten districts: Dibrugarh, Tinsukia, Jorhat, Sivasagar, Golaghat, Lakhimpur, Dhemaji, Majuli, Charaideo and Biswanath. Known for its tea economy and Ahom cultural roots, Upper Assam continues to hold considerable political and economic importance in the state.

The Congress, meanwhile, is attempting to regain lost ground through a six-party alliance that brings together influential regional figures. Central to this effort are three leaders with the surname Gogoi: Jorhat MP Gaurav Gogoi, Sibsagar MLA and Raijor Dal founder Akhil Gogoi, and Assam Jatiya Parishad president Lurinjyoti Gogoi. Together, they are referred to locally as the "3G", and are seen by supporters as the core of the Opposition's challenge in Upper Assam.

Gaurav Gogoi emerged as a key figure after defeating Bharatiya Janata Party's sitting MP Topon Kumar Gogoi in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections by a margin of over 1.4 lakh votes. He is now contesting the Jorhat Assembly seat, which falls within his parliamentary constituency. He faces BJP's Hitendra Nath Goswami, a seasoned leader who has represented the seat multiple times since 1991, beginning his career with the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

Electoral history in Jorhat reflects a closely fought contest. While Goswami lost to Congress candidate Rana Goswami in 2006 and 2011, he returned to win the seat in both 2016 and 2021, defeating the same rival.

Akhil Gogoi, known for his work as a farmer leader and RTI activist, had won the Sibsagar seat in 2021 by nearly 12,000 votes, despite being in jail at the time. His party, Raijor Dal, founded in 2020, currently holds two seats in the Assembly and is now aligned with the Congress.

Lurinjyoti Gogoi, another key member of the trio, also launched his party, the Assam Jatiya Parishad, in 2020 after rising through student politics as a former general secretary of the All Assam Students' Union. He is contesting from Khowang in Dibrugarh district, a constituency earlier known as Moran before delimitation. He faces BJP's Chakradhar Gogoi, who has represented the seat in the Assembly twice.

Beyond these high-profile contests, the Opposition is also focusing on constituencies such as Tinsukia and Lakhimpur. The BJP had won Tinsukia comfortably in previous elections, but changing ground dynamics could make the seat competitive. In Lakhimpur, the Congress had lost by just around 3,000 votes in 2021, while the AJP, then contesting independently, secured nearly 2,500 votes.

These constituencies could prove decisive in shaping Upper Assam's outcome, with the Opposition expecting the AJP to influence anti-BJP voting patterns in around 10 seats, while the "3G" leaders seek to consolidate Ahom support across nearly 45 constituencies. Despite these efforts, the Congress faces organisational challenges on the ground. The BJP's established network, combined with the personal appeal of CM Sarma, continues to give the ruling alliance an advantage.

- IANS