China's Military Purge Sparks War-Readiness Fears, US Dialogue Collapses

What began as whispers of corruption has now escalated into a sweeping purge that has hollowed out the PLA's top ranks, raising profound questions about China's readiness for war, its internal stability, and the future of Beijing-Washington military dialogue, stated an analysis in the Bulgaria-based Modern Diplomacy.

"Zhang's fall was not an isolated event. Over the past two years, dozens, possibly hundreds of senior officers have been removed, many from strategically vital areas. Analysts note a disproportionate number of purged commanders came from China's nuclear forces, the Eastern Theatre Command responsible for Taiwan, and elite units based in Beijing itself," the report observed.

The analysis captured the essence of the purge as a mix of paranoia, consolidation, and uncertainty.

It noted that the usual seven-member Central Military Commission has been reduced to little more than the President himself and Zhang Shengmin, the head of the military's discipline apparatus.

"The result is a striking imbalance: political enforcers remain, while professional commanders have largely vanished," wrote the publication's news editor Sana Khan.

Zhang's ouster came in January, a month after US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan met him in Beijing in August 2024 to what the writer called "to steady a dangerous relationship".

Washington wanted to stay in touch with the PLA to reduce the risk of miscalculation, an accidental clash in the air or at sea, a cyber incident spiralling out of control, or a misunderstood missile test.

"Today, that fragile effort looks close to collapse," the article stressed.

The timing is critical, it observed, where Xi has reportedly ordered the PLA to be capable of winning a Taiwan conflict by 2027, accelerating goals once set for 2035. With that deadline looming, the purge suggests deep dissatisfaction and possibly distrust at the very top, noted the article.

Official explanations emphasise corruption, accusing officers of looting defence budgets and allowing rot to spread. Some PLA publications even branded the military a "paper tiger" - a stunning admission for a force Beijing has long portrayed as modern and unstoppable, it added.

The writer maintains that either Xi believes corruption fatally weakened the PLA, or Beijing projects weakness while secretly maintaining strength.

"Either interpretation carries risks. Declaring your military unreliable undermines deterrence. Pretending it is unreliable while preparing for conflict invites catastrophic miscalculation," the analysis inferred.

Meanwhile, China's nuclear expansion continues amid reports of mismanagement in missile fields. Whether exaggerated or not, these stories fuel suspicion and fear within the ranks, it added.

"Perhaps the most immediate consequence is the near-death of US-China military engagement. Contacts that once involved senior generals have dwindled to formalities," wrote Khan, adding, "Commanders Washington hoped to engage including those overseeing Taiwan and the South China Sea appear to have been purged themselves."

Future dialogue may be rendered impossible if communication with the West is now seen as dangerous or disloyal within the PLA, she opined, leaving intelligence agencies, not conversations, as the primary source of insight and a far more brittle foundation for managing rivalry between nuclear-armed powers.

For Taiwan, the silence from Beijing's Generals may be more alarming than their threats. For Washington, the collapse of military dialogue means managing rivalry through intelligence alone. For Xi, the purge represents both strength and insecurity - a gamble that loyalty will substitute for competence.

"The greatest risk may not be that China is preparing for war tomorrow, but that it is entering a phase where misjudgement becomes easier and correction harder. For the world, and especially for Taiwan, that silence from Beijing's Generals may prove more alarming than their threats ever were," concluded the article.

- IANS