China's missile test came while US engaged in war: Report
Wellington, July 19
The timing of the recent nuclear-capable missile launch from a Chinese submarine deserves more scrutiny than it has received, said a report noting that the US has been distracted by the ongoing conflict in West Asia.
"The test's timing deserves more scrutiny than it has received. Since late February, the United States has been at war with Iran, a conflict that escalated further in the very week of China's launch, with Washington striking dozens of Iranian targets after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. American attention, military assets and diplomatic capital have been absorbed by the Gulf for months," said a report from Asia Media Centre, a resource hub for New Zealand journalists to access expertise and contextual information on Asia.
The author Divya Malhotra argued that the West Asia war does not prove China's test to be opportunistic, and that Beijing also insists that the timing reflects its annual training calendar.
"But the demonstration landed at a moment when the one power capable of a serious response to Chinese nuclear signalling was least able to devote sustained attention to it, a data point regional planners in Tokyo, Canberra and New Delhi are unlikely to have missed," noted Malhotra.
According to her, "None of this diminishes the Pacific's stake in the story. A missile landing inside the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone remains, first and foremost, an event in New Zealand's own strategic neighbourhood, and the region's deepening nuclear instability was already a matter of concern well before this test occurred."
The report noted that this is not an isolated event and recalled China's September 2024 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) test into the Pacific, which was the first one in international waters in 44 years, followed by a rapid sequence of silo-based ICBM launches in December 2024.
"Together, these episodes describe a state moving from a minimal, opaque deterrent toward one that is larger, more redundant, and increasingly comfortable demonstrating itself in public," said the report.
According to Malhotra, this launch shows a pattern in which China is increasingly willing to openly validate its arsenal, rather than developing it in secrecy.
"Set against China's wider submarine build-out, the test looks less like a one-off demonstration and more like a deliberate step toward continuous at-sea deterrence, the kind of standing, always-on undersea patrol long practised by the United States, France and the United Kingdom," the report emphasised.
— IANS
Reader Comments
It's interesting how China is being more open about its nuclear capabilities now. But honestly, isn't this just a case of "when the cat's away, the mice will play"? The US being tied up in another conflict gives Beijing a strategic window. India and our Quad partners need to coordinate better.
Let's not jump to conclusions. China says it's part of their annual training, and we all have our military exercises. But the timing is indeed suspicious. As an Indian, I'm more concerned about the impact on the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone - that sets a dangerous precedent for our region too.
This is worrying, yaar. China has been building up its nuclear arsenal very fast - from minimal deterrence to something much more aggressive. For India, which shares a border with China, this should be a major concern. We need to fast-track our own indigenous submarine programme.
The report makes a valid point about China moving towards "continuous at-sea deterrence" like the US, UK and France already have. But let's be real - every nuclear power does this. The question is whether China will be a responsible stakeholder. Given their behaviour in the South China Sea, I'm not optimistic. 😤
As an Indian, I feel we shouldn't overreact. China has been modernising its military for years, this is just the next step. Instead of panicking, India should focus on building our own strategic partnerships and capabilities. The Quad is a good start, but we need concrete action, not just statements.
We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.