China's Japan Policy a "Strategic Blunder" as Tensions Reach Inflection Point

By viewing Japan primarily as an adversarial player instead of a competitive partner within a shared regional framework, Beijing is limiting its own strategic options, a report said on Tuesday.

"China's approach towards Japan has reached an inflection point in the past few months since the autumn of 2025. What began as managed rivalry has now hardened into a posture of sustained pressure. And in doing so, Beijing has locked itself into a strategy that is increasingly being viewed as self-defeating," a report in 'Japan Forward' detailed.

"Rather than reshaping regional behaviour in China's favour, Beijing's hard policy has intuitively accelerated security alignments and deepened its negative perceptions prevailing across East and Southeast Asia. The effects of such a policy are already visible, and its long-term implications are unlikely to favour Beijing," it added.

According to the report, Beijing has made clear over the past year that restraint is no longer its preferred approach in dealing with Tokyo, with Chinese coast guard vessels entering the contiguous zone around the disputed Senkaku Islands on a daily basis.

Moreover, it said, repeated intrusions into Japan's territorial waters have been documented month after month.

The report highlighted that in 2025 Japan recorded Chinese maritime presence near the islands for more than 356 days, "a level of operational persistence without precedent in the bilateral relationship".

"Politically, Beijing has also hardened its public messaging. It has rejected crisis-management mechanisms when tensions have spiked, instead framing Japan's defence reforms as evidence of militarism rather than reaction," it mentioned.

"Economic levers have also been applied selectively, from export control signalling to informal pressure on Japanese firms operating in China. All together, these actions point to a deliberate strategy of normalised coercion rather than episodic deterrence," it further added.

The report emphasised that China's recent coercive behaviour has strained bilateral ties, underpinned by a "strategic misreading" of Japan's role within its immediate neighbourhood and across Asia.

Beijing portrays Tokyo as an "extension of a United States containment strategy" rather than an independent regional actor guided by its own strategic calculations.

The report further said, "If Beijing continues on its current trajectory, it will face a region that is increasingly aligned not against China's power, but against its conduct. A recalibrated approach would not require concession or retreat. It would require restraint, predictability, and a return to competitive coexistence."

- IANS