Ex-Diplomat Reveals China's Key Role in Iran Talks, Sees Hope for Deal

Speaking to ANI, he said that there's still hope for an agreement, despite no formal deal being reached. "You look at each other and see whether you are squirming, or you are smiling, or you are forgiving. These are the issues which happen. To answer your question, therefore, I feel that even though there was no agreement on Hormuz, we should not give up hope. There will be more opportunities, and they will have to come out with some kind of understanding," said Soni.

"Iran also knows that they should not give in immediately, and they are encouraged by the fact that China has, for the first time, they have not come out openly, but it's quite clear that China did play a role in Iran coming to the negotiation table. So that itself is a gain to my mind," he said.

Soni characterised the Strait of Hormuz as the ultimate "yardstick" for US President Donald Trump's strategic legacy, following a high-stakes peace conference in Islamabad aimed at de-escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran.

Soni said that the American public will measure Trump's success by his ability to ensure the opening of the Strait and the safety of international shipping. The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for global shipping and oil trade.

"Well, so far as Hormuz is concerned, it's of critical importance to Trump's strategic planning. For him, that is the yardstick by which his countrymen will measure him. And so he has put all his stakes on that particular issue. Iran also knows that its best trump card is to ensure that they retain control over the movement of traffic, which means shipping, et cetera. So there is a really good tussle going on between the two sides at the conference, peace conference, which was held in Islamabad," he said.

Soni explained that both the US and Iran entered the conference with "maximalist" positions, knowing their initial demands would likely be rejected. However, he emphasised that the true progress occurred away from the main table.

"That was the front position they had taken, what is in diplomatic terms called the, not just the forward position, but maximalist position. So they had gone with that. They knew very well that it would not be acceptable. So all kinds of other tricks were tried at this conference, and it's an interesting conference. A lot of people do not realise the importance of this conference. This conference cannot be measured in terms of results. You cannot expect that on such a sensitive issue, an agreement will be signed in the first meeting itself. That doesn't happen. There are rounds and rounds and rounds of conferences which go on,' he said.

According to Vidya Bhushan Soni, the real negotiations happen behind the scenes, and the fact that Iran conceded there's been movement forward is a positive sign.

"The real negotiation takes place not across the table but behind the table on the sidelines. So in this conference, therefore, there was first of all a meeting at that particular high level after I believe forty-seven or forty-eight years. The fact that it happened itself is, to my mind, quite an achievement. Now, as I said, you can't expect all results in one go. I was very fascinated and quite interested in reading the statement put out by the Iranian Foreign Ministry official, which was quite revealing and which has unfortunately not been understood or maybe not highlighted by the media, at least in India," he said.

Despite the lack of a signed treaty, Soni urged observers not to view the conference as a failure. He pointed to a "revealing" statement from the Iranian Foreign Ministry which suggested agreement on several points, even though three or four key positions remain deadlocked.

"There were discussions--the important thing is discussion. More importantly, they said there was agreement on many points. Of course, it was stuck in three or four positions. Now this is saying a lot. A formal press conference by the Iranian side, conceding that there was some movement forward, that itself to my mind is important," he said.

Soni highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz is the bargaining chip for Iran. It is also important for the US because Trump wants to show his involvement in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

"Now, in that, as I said, the foremost position from both sides is Hormuz. If Hormuz is taken away, there is no bargaining chip for Iran. And for Trump, only the reopening of Hormuz and his direct involvement in the movement of shipping are what are important for him. So I see it from that angle that even though there was no formal agreement on issues, the three issues will remain because it doesn't happen overnight. Whatever has been put out by--and mind you, it was for a full one day, 21 hours of intense negotiation--and they were not sitting just across the table," he said.

Soni noted that while the 21-hour marathon negotiations did not produce a formal agreement, the event marked a historic diplomatic milestone--the first high-level meeting of its kind in nearly 48 years.

"It was midnight, and people are really not in a position to keep themselves very balanced when you are talking about that, but the fact is, it happened. So they have tried to gauge each other, they have tried to understand each other's viewpoints," he added.

Control over the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran's primary bargaining chip. By controlling shipping traffic, they maintain leverage against US pressure. Iran wants to maintain control over the strait, while the US wants to reopen it.

"When they go back home, and particularly I'm talking about the US side, they will consider what the ramifications were put across to them for the first time in a formal manner. It was not through indirect methods, but it was through direct--you know, body language means a lot," Soni said.

The sensitivity of the region was further highlighted on Tuesday as MarineTraffic data reported that a Malawi-flagged, Chinese-owned vessel successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz, bypassing the ongoing US blockade targeting Iranian-linked shipping, according to MarineTraffic data cited by CNN.

- ANI