Defence, Capital Goods Sectors Set for Earnings Boom on Capex Revival

India's capital expenditure cycle is showing clear signs of a broad-based recovery, driven by policy support and improving economic conditions. The defence sector is poised for strong long-term growth due to higher budget allocations, indigenisation efforts, and export opportunities. Capital goods companies are expected to see sharp earnings improvements as new orders pick up and operating leverage remains high. Additionally, industrial and electronics manufacturing services stand to benefit from domestic capex and global supply-chain shifts under the "China+1" strategy.

Key Points: Capex Recovery to Drive Defence, Capital Goods Earnings Growth

  • Defence sector a long-term beneficiary
  • Capital goods earnings to improve sharply
  • Private investment gradually returning
  • Global supply-chain shifts benefit India
2 min read

Capex recovery likely to drive earnings growth in defence, capital goods: Report

India's capex cycle revives, boosting defence and capital goods sectors. Private investment returns, driving strong earnings growth for 2-3 years.

Capex recovery likely to drive earnings growth in defence, capital goods: Report
"This revival is no longer limited to government spending, as private investment is slowly returning as well. - Antique Stock Broking Report"

New Delhi, Jan 4

India's capital expenditure cycle is showing early but clear signs of a comeback, and market experts believe several sectors linked to investment spending could see strong growth over the next two to three years.

According to the India Equity Strategy 2026 report by Antique Stock Broking, improving economic conditions, policy support, and rising investments by both companies and households are creating the base for a broad recovery in capex.

The report said this revival is no longer limited to government spending, as private investment is slowly returning as well.

The defence sector is expected to be one of the biggest long-term beneficiaries of the capex push.

Higher budget allocations, a strong order pipeline, and the government's focus on indigenisation under the Atmanirbhar Bharat programme are giving defence companies better revenue visibility for several years.

Growing export opportunities are also adding to the sector's growth prospects. Capital goods companies are also likely to see sharp improvement in earnings.

The report notes that new orders are picking up at a time when operating leverage is high. With factories already running above long-term average capacity levels, even small increases in revenue could lead to a big jump in profits.

In addition, valuations in some parts of the sector have corrected, making investments more attractive.

Industrial and electronics manufacturing services companies are set to benefit from both domestic capex and global supply-chain shifts.

As global firms look to reduce their dependence on China under the "China+1" strategy, India is becoming a preferred manufacturing destination.

This trend is expected to support steady demand for industrial equipment, electronics, and automation-related services.

The report also highlights that while government spending on infrastructure continues to support growth, the gradual return of private investment is a key positive change.

This shift is likely to benefit infrastructure developers, construction firms, and engineering companies, especially those linked to roads, railways, power projects, and urban infrastructure.

Lower interest rates, better affordability, and rising household investment are also helping revive housing demand.

This is expected to support real estate developers as well as building material companies such as cement makers and construction input suppliers.

These segments usually pick up later in the capex cycle, but tend to see faster growth once project execution gains momentum.

- IANS

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Reader Comments

P
Priya S
As someone working in manufacturing, I can see the 'China+1' shift happening. New orders are definitely picking up. Hope this translates to more stable jobs and better wages for the workforce.
R
Rohit P
Good analysis, but I hope this private capex revival is broad-based and not just in a few large conglomerates. MSMEs need easier credit and policy support to truly participate in this cycle.
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Sarah B
The housing demand revival is key. If construction picks up, it will create so many jobs. My brother is a civil engineer and has been seeing more project inquiries lately. Fingers crossed!
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Vikram M
Defence exports growing is a proud moment. We are moving from being the world's largest importer to a credible exporter. This strategic sector needs sustained focus.
K
Karthik V
The report is optimistic, which is fine. But execution is everything. We've seen announcements before. Need to see these projects actually getting completed on time and within budget.

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