BNP's Bangladesh Win: India's Relief Tempered by Jamaat's Rising Power

India has hoped for a BNP win as it is easier to do business with them than the Jamaat, which is perceived to be anti-India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was one of the first to congratulate BNP chief Tarique Rahman on the win.

"I convey my warm congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman on leading BNP to a decisive victory in the Parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership," the post read.

"India will continue to stand in support of a democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh. I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals," PM Modi wrote.

While the BNP's win is a welcome sign for India, one must also take into account the number of seats that the Jamaat is set to win. In the 1986 elections, it won ten seats. In 1988, the tally was nil, while in the 1991 elections, the party won 18. It boycotted the 1996 elections, and in 2014, 2018 and 2024, the Jamaat did not contest the elections. The highest number of seats it ever won is 18 until the 2026 elections, in which it is set to win close to 70 seats.

Analysts say that this is a huge jump, and being close to the Muhammad Yunus-headed interim government did pay off. Even in the student union elections held in recent months, the Jamaat won handsomely. The rise in the number of seats in Parliament means that the Jamaat will have much more control.

Officials say that the BNP will have a lot of navigating to do in Parliament despite having such a huge mandate. The Jamaat would be an irritant for the BNP, especially when it comes to international affairs.

An official said that the Jamaat will consistently pressure the BNP to take a strong stand against India. Owing to its proximity to Pakistan, it would try not let the BNP take a soft stance on India.

While the BNP does not need the Jamaat owing to the huge mandate, there would still be a lot of irritants that it would have to deal with, the official said.

Officials also say that a lot has changed in Bangladesh since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina. She had managed to keep the Pakistanis at bay until Muhammad Yunus welcomed the country with open arms.

The involvement of the Chinese, too, has gone up in Bangladesh. During this period, ties with India soured with open anti-India narratives being pushed by the interim government and the Jamaat.

The BNP would need time to recalibrate all of this. India too understands that a lot of water has flown under the bridge, and the government led by Tarique Rahman would need time, another official added.

The Jamaat is bound to keep the pressure up on the BNP. The party, which sounded confident before the elections, struck a sour note when the results were being announced.

The party said that it was not satisfied with the process surrounding the election results. It also questioned the integrity of the results process.

An Intelligence Bureau official says that the Jamaat is clearly trying to build up a case where it can call the counting process rigged.

For now, the party has said that it will wait for the final result to be released. However, knowing the Jamaat, it is bound to unleash its radicals on the streets and indulge in widespread violence, the official also added.

With a strong ground base and the very fact that it controls a majority of the students' unions, the Jamaat is likely to try to blackmail the BNP.

The BNP wants to make a fresh start, and it would not want its term to commence in the backdrop of violent protests.

- IANS