BJP's Civic Poll Dominance Alarms Shiv Sena, NCP Allies in Maharashtra

However, the BJP's victory on its own in more than 16 municipal corporations has raised alarm bells for allies, including the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, who will have to pull up their socks to stay relevant while increasing their presence.

While the BJP initially utilised Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar to topple the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government by splitting the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the latest data suggest the party is now systematically establishing dominance within its allies' traditional strongholds.

Following the formation of the MVA government under Uddhav Thackeray, the BJP camp was initially gripped by disappointment. However, within two and a half years, the party successfully brought Eknath Shinde into its fold to seize power. While Shinde was satisfied with the Chief Minister's post, the BJP's long-term strategy involved more than just a change in leadership.

Despite a setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP managed to maintain its momentum in the Assembly polls. By leveraging the support of the Shinde and Pawar factions, the party has significantly bolstered its grassroots presence across the state.

The BJP has effectively overturned decades-old political equations. During its 25-30-year alliance with the undivided Shiv Sena, the Sena typically contested 171 seats to the BJP's 117.

Today, the BJP has reversed this formula, building a robust organisational network across all 288 constituencies, even in areas historically dominated by its partners.

According to political analysts, the BJP deployed a calculated strategy wherein ministers, MLAs and MPs were given specific responsibilities to weaken the grip of Shinde and Pawar in regions like Mumbai, Thane, Kalyan-Dombivli, Navi Mumbai and Konkan. The party treated municipal and zilla parishad elections with the same intensity as general elections, ensuring meticulous planning at the booth level.

The results indicate that while the BJP formed alliances in municipal corporations where it was not confident of a solo victory, the benefits of these tie-ups did not flow back to the Shinde faction.

Instead, the BJP has established undisputed dominance in major urban hubs including Mumbai, Pune, Navi Mumbai and Kalyan-Dombivli.

By dismantling the traditional bastions of the Shiv Sena and the NCP, the BJP has signalled that its primary goal remains total political hegemony, leaving its "younger brothers" struggling to protect their own turf.

The Shinde faction, which repeatedly claimed it is the "real Sena", will have to strive to maintain its status as the party was outpaced by the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena in Mumbai and by the BJP in other civic bodies, whether fighting together or solo.

Similarly, it is a wake-up call for the NCP led by Ajit Pawar, whose decision to aggressively take on the BJP while going solo in Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad did not pay off. The BJP, with its organisational might, outsmarted the NCP and also sent a strong signal to Ajit Pawar that he will have no option but to remain in the Mahayuti till the next Assembly elections.

The BJP has not liked Ajit Pawar's move to align with his uncle Sharad Pawar-led NCP in Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad. In a nutshell, the mighty BJP will strongly pursue its goal of gaining power on its own, while making the Shiv Sena and the NCP chart their own paths to retain political relevance.

(Sanjay Jog can be contacted at sanjay.j@ians.in)

- IANS