BJP may secure 100-seat mark in Assam: Exit poll
Guwahati, April 30
Fresh seat and vote share projections on Thursday for the Assembly elections in Assam have indicated a strong advantage for the ruling NDA alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party, with the bloc projected to secure 102 seats, with a margin of error of plus or minus nine seats.
According to the exit poll by Today's Chanakya, the Opposition alliance led by the Congress (Congress+) is projected to win 23 seats, with a variation range of plus or minus nine seats, while others are expected to remain marginal at around one seat.
If the trend holds, the BJP-led combine would comfortably retain power in the 126-member Assembly.
In terms of vote share, the BJP+ alliance is projected to receive around 50 per cent votes, with a possible fluctuation of three percentage points.
The Congress-led bloc is estimated to secure 38 per cent votes, while other parties and Independents together may account for 12 per cent.
The projections reflect a significant consolidation of support in favour of the ruling BJP-led alliance, driven by organisational strength and welfare outreach.
However, they also noted that campaign momentum, candidate selection and regional factors could still influence the final outcome before polling.
Several exit poll surveys already projected a decisive victory for the BJP in Assam, indicating that incumbent Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is set to return to power for a second consecutive term.
Most pollsters forecast the ruling party crossing the majority mark comfortably in the 126-member Assam Assembly, with estimates suggesting the BJP could secure more than 80 seats on its own.
The majority mark in the Assembly stands at 64 seats.
If the projections hold true, it would mark another emphatic mandate for the BJP in the politically significant northeastern state and further strengthen the leadership position of Himanta Biswa Sarma, who took charge as the Assam Chief Minister after the 2021 Assembly polls.
The tenure of the present Assam Assembly is scheduled to end on May 20 and the formation of a new government is expected before that date following the declaration of results.
In the 2021 Assembly elections, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance had retained power by winning 75 seats in the state.
The Congress-led Opposition bloc had secured 50 seats, while one seat went to an Independent candidate.
Assam was among the states where exit polls in 2021 came closest to the final outcome, with most surveys accurately predicting the BJP's return to office within a narrow margin of error.
With similar forecasts emerging this time, all eyes are now on the final results to see whether the ruling party can convert the projections into another landslide mandate.
— IANS
Reader Comments
Himanta Biswa Sarma has truly transformed Assam's governance. Development work on infrastructure and healthcare is visible even in small towns. 👏 But need to ensure employment generation keeps pace with all this growth.
If Congress can't even cross 30 in a state they once ruled comfortably, time for serious introspection. The Opposition hasn't offered any alternative vision beyond criticizing Modi. Still, exit polls can be misleading—remember 2004?
Good governance should be the only criteria, not just party loyalty. The BJP has delivered on peace and connectivity in the Northeast, but we need more localized decision-making. Panchayati Raj institutions need strengthening too. 🤔
As someone from Guwahati, I can see the change. Roads are better, medical facilities have improved, and insurgency has reduced drastically. But need to focus on flood management and farmer issues—these are real concerns for common people. Hope the next government addresses them.
Exit polls are emotional rollercoasters for parties. BJP workers are celebrating already, but remember—actual voting can surprise. The Congress has strong local leaders in some pockets. Let the results speak! 😅
The margin of error is ±
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