India Braces for Dry, Warm February as IMD Predicts Below-Normal Rainfall

The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal rainfall for most of India in February 2026. Both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across the majority of the country. This pattern continues the trend from January, which saw a 31.5% rainfall deficit and above-average mean temperatures. The deficit was particularly severe in East and Northeast India, which experienced an 86.2% shortfall.

Key Points: IMD Forecast: Below-Normal Rainfall, Above-Average Temps for February

  • Below-normal rainfall forecast for February
  • Above-normal minimum & maximum temperatures expected
  • Fewer cold wave days predicted in NW & central India
  • Follows January's significant rainfall deficit
2 min read

Below-normal rainfall, above-average temperatures likely in February in India: IMD

IMD predicts below-normal rainfall and above-average minimum & maximum temperatures across most of India in February 2026, continuing January's dry trend.

"Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during February 2026 is most likely to be below normal - Mrutyunjay Mohapatra"

New Delhi, January 31

India is likely to witness below-normal rainfall in February, while both minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department said on Saturday.

Addressing a press conference, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that below-normal cold wave days are expected over several parts of northwest and adjoining central India during the month.

He said that monthly rainfall during February 2026 over Northwest India--comprising East Uttar Pradesh, West Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh--is most likely to be below normal.

"Monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during February 2026 is most likely to be below normal, that is, less than 81 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA)," Mohapatra said.

He added that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country, except some areas of northwest and east-central India, and extreme southern parts of northeast India, where normal to above-normal rainfall is expected.

On temperatures, the IMD said minimum temperatures during February 2026 are likely to be above normal over most parts of the country, except some regions of south peninsular India, where normal minimum temperatures are expected.

Similarly, maximum temperatures are also likely to remain above normal over most parts of the country, barring isolated regions of central India and southern peninsular India, where normal maximum temperatures are likely.

The IMD said February weather conditions are expected to mirror January trends, during which India recorded 31.5 per cent below-normal rainfall, while the all-India mean temperature stood 0.28 degrees Celsius above normal at 18.31 degrees Celsius.

The IMD Director General, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra Jenamani, said rainfall during the January remained deficient over Northwest India, East and Northeast India, and Central India, while South Peninsular India received near-normal rainfall, registering 10.9 per cent above the long-period average.

The deficit was particularly acute across large parts of East and North East India, and central India.

"Northwest India recorded 12.1 per cent less rainfall (in January), while East and Northeast India saw a massive 86.2 per cent shortfall. Central India also witnessed the decline, with rainfall plunging 79.4 per cent below normal," Jenamani said.

- ANI

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Reader Comments

S
Sarah B
Living in Delhi, I've already noticed this winter feels much milder. Fewer cold wave days might be comfortable, but it's a clear sign of changing climate patterns. We really need to take global warming more seriously.
A
Ananya R
The massive 86% shortfall in East & Northeast India in January is alarming! That's our water reservoir for the coming months. Hope the IMD predictions help state governments prepare better for potential water scarcity. 🙏
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Vikram M
While the IMD does important work, I wish their long-range forecasts were more consistently accurate. It would help farmers plan better. Still, this data is crucial for policy makers.
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Karthik V
Less rain might mean fewer disruptions for city life and travel, but the ecological cost is high. Our rivers and groundwater need replenishment. This trend from January continuing into February is not a good sign at all.
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Priya S
Time to be more water-wise at home! Every drop counts. Also, maybe we'll get an early spring? The warmer temps could be nice for outdoor activities, but the bigger picture is concerning.

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