NewKerala.com

Bangladesh Election Campaign Ends Amid Conflicting Poll Predictions

The election campaign in Bangladesh has officially concluded, with restrictions taking effect 48 hours before the February 12 vote. Multiple pre-election opinion polls have released sharply contrasting projections, creating uncertainty about the actual electoral landscape. One survey by EASD projects the BNP-led alliance winning around 208 seats, while a poll by IILD predicts a tight contest with both major blocs near 100 seats. Analysts warn that these conflicting projections may influence voter expectations rather than accurately predict the outcome.

Key Points: Bangladesh Election: Campaign Ends, Polls Show Divergent Results

  • Campaigning ended 48 hours before voting
  • Three major polls show sharp contrasts
  • One projects BNP-led alliance win of 208 seats
  • Another predicts tight contest near 100 seats each
2 min read

Bangladesh election campaign ends, opinion polls indicate tough BNP-Jamaat contest

Campaigning concludes for Bangladesh's Feb 12 election as conflicting opinion polls project vastly different outcomes for BNP and Jamaat alliances.

"Conflicting projections may influence expectations rather than accurately predict electoral outcomes - Analysts"

Dhaka, Feb 10

As the curtain came down on Bangladesh's election campaign on Tuesday, political parties concluded weeks of intense electioneering ahead of February 12 national elections, local media reported.

In the closing hours, leaders made several promises and pledges, leaving voters to assess them before the polls slated for Thursday.

The campaigning restrictions came into force on Tuesday morning under the Parliamentary Election Code of Conduct for Political Parties and Candidates' Rules, 2025.

As per the code of conduct, political parties, candidates, or individuals must conclude electioneering 48 hours before the voting begins, Bangladesh's leading daily, The Dhaka Tribune, reported.

The political parties and candidates began their election campaigning on January 22, following the allocation of election symbols a day before.

Meanwhile, a series of pre-election opinion polls released by various organisations in Bangladesh has produced sharply contrasting projections, raising concerns about their methodology, credibility and the potential impact on voter perception.

Three major surveys published in the last two days projected different pictures of the electoral landscape, particularly in terms of the relative strength of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led alliance and the radical Islamist party Jamaat-e-Islami-led bloc, The Dhaka Tribune reported.

A survey released by Dhaka-based Eminence Associates for Social Development (EASD) claimed to have interviewed 41,500 respondents across all 300 constituencies using the Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) method.

While presenting the findings at the Krishibid Institution in Dhaka on Monday, EASD Chief Executive Officer Shamim Haider Talukder said the BNP-led alliance is projected to win around 208 seats, whereas the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliance may secure 46 seats in the upcoming polls.

In contrast, a survey conducted by Bangladesh's International Institute of Law and Diplomacy (IILD) predicted a tight contest, with the Jamaat-led alliance expected to win 105 seats and the BNP-led bloc 101 seats.

Adding to the divergent projections, a third survey, released by the Nationalist Research Cell (NRC) -- a platform of former Dhaka University students -- predicts a BNP landslide with 77 per cent of the popular vote and 220 parliamentary seats.

While surveys remain a prominent feature of election-season discussions, analysts warn that conflicting projections may influence expectations rather than accurately predict electoral outcomes, especially amid heightened political tensions.

- IANS

Share this article:

Reader Comments

S
Shreya B
Stability in Bangladesh is crucial for the entire region, including our Northeast states. A strong government that can control radical elements is needed. The wide variation in these polls is concerning – seems like someone is trying to manipulate public opinion. 🤔
A
Aman W
As an Indian, I follow Bangladesh politics closely. The rise of Jamaat-e-Islami is worrying. They have historical links with anti-India forces. Hope the people choose wisely for regional peace and prosperity. Jai Hind!
P
Priyanka N
The methodology of these surveys seems flawed. 41,500 respondents sounds like a lot, but if it's not representative, it means nothing. Media should be more responsible in reporting such conflicting numbers without proper analysis.
V
Vikram M
Bangladesh has come a long way economically. Whatever the result, hope the new government continues good relations with India and focuses on development. The election season tension is normal in any democracy.
K
Kavya N
Respectfully, as a student of political science, I think the article could have provided more context about what these alliances stand for. For readers unfamiliar with Bangladeshi politics, just names like BNP and Jamaat don't mean much. The reporting feels surface-level.
D
David E
Watching from

We welcome thoughtful discussions from our readers. Please keep comments respectful and on-topic.

Leave a Comment

Minimum 50 characters 0/50