Bangladesh Faces Power Crisis by 2031 Without Urgent Reforms

According to a study by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (Sanem), Bangladesh's installed power generation capacity may peak at around 35,000 megawatts (MW) by 2029 and effective capacity is likely to reduce to nearly 30,000MW by the mid-2030s due to plant retirements, reducing domestic gas availability and limit new project additions, Bangladesh's leading daily The Daily Star reported.

The study presented by Sanem's Director Israt Hossain, and Honorary Deputy Director Tuhin Ahmed at an online workshop on Bangladesh's energy transition organised by the platform stated, "Installed capacity figures often create a false sense of comfort."

The study estimates that electricity demand will increase by 5-6 per cent each year due to industrialisation, mechanisation and rising living standards. Under a five per cent growth scenario, demand is expected to surpass supply by 2035 while a six per cent scenario could witness the crossover as early as 2033, possibly leading to a supply shortfall exceeding 14,000MW by 2040 if no necessary measures are taken.

The study stated, "This is why the idea of overcapacity in the power sector is misleading." It mentioned, "The real challenge is ensuring dependable, fuel-secure and efficiently generated electricity over the long term."

According to the study, the private power producers now represent almost 50 per cent of the installed generation capacity, managing over 70 facilities with a total capacity surpassing 11,000MW.

"This heavy dependence on imported energy has made its economy highly vulnerable to global price shocks," The Daily Star quoted Sanem executive director Selim Raihan as saying.

On September 25 last year, parts of Dhaka witnessed hours of power cuts after the partial collapse of the national power transmission grid, the United News of Bangladesh (UNB) reported.

According to data released by Power Grid Bangladesh, there was a power shortage of 498MW at 4 pm on September 25, 2025, when the supply of power was at 14,379MW against the power demand of 14,900MW, which is about half of Bangladesh's present installed power generation capacity of 28,197MW.

- IANS