New Delhi, January 5
The agriculture sector is likely to stabilise in 2026, although conditions will remain uneven. In the global soybean market, supply is expected to tighten in the 2025-26 season, with ending stocks forecast to edge lower year-on-year. Demand for soybeans is projected to reach record levels, even as global production declines compared with the previous year.
This is driven by record-high demand and a decline in global production, primarily due to a reduction in US soybean plantings amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China, noted ING's Commodities Outlook 2026.
"US soybean production is forecast to fall 2.8% YoY to a little under 116m tonnes. This is despite the planted area estimated to have fallen 7.1% YoY.", the report said.
Brazil is expected to see another record soybean harvest in the 2025-26 season, with production forecast to reach at least 175 million tonnes, up 2% year-over-year. This will reinforce Brazil's dominant position as the key supplier in the global soybean market.
On the other hand, corn prices have come under pressure this year due to record corn production. The report expects the corn market to experience more meaningful tightening in the 2026-27 marketing year, with a global deficit of approximately 39m tonnes.
"A deal between the US and China should see US farmers increase soybean acreage at the expense of corn acreage. In addition, we are assuming that yields will fall from the record levels seen in 2025-26 and towards the five-year average. This would see a US corn harvest totalling around 394m tonnes - down 7% YoY, but still the second-largest harvest on record.", the report added.
Additionally, Global wheat stocks are set to see record production, with stocks expected to increase by around 10m tonnes YoY to 271m tonnes. "Global wheat production is expected to total almost 829m tonnes this season, up 3.5% YoY, and above the 809m tonnes forecast back in May this year.", the report said.
Furthermore, sugar prices have come under significant pressure, dropping over 20% in 2025, with expectations of a large surplus in the 2025-26 marketing year due to strong output from key producers.
"Stronger output should see the market shift from a deficit of almost 2m tonnes in 2024/25 to a surplus of around 7m tonnes in 2025-26, which would be the largest sugar surplus since 2017-18," the report stated.
Cocoa prices have become "one of the worst-performing commodities," collapsing this year, with London cocoa falling almost 60% as improved supply prospects and weaker demand have returned the market to surplus in the 2024-25 season.
"Better yields and an expansion in plantations are expected to drive an increase in Ecuador's cocoa production. Ecuador is the third-largest producer and is on track to take the number two spot from Ghana in the coming years. For the 2025-26 season, Ecuador is expected to produce 580k tonnes, up around 4% YoY, continuing its upward trend in output," the report added.
Arabica coffee, on the other hand, has become "one of the strongest performers amongst agri commodities" and surged over 25% this year due to poor weather in Brazil and tight stocks, but are expected to decline in 2026. Supply is set to improve with stronger arabica output from Brazil, and Vietnam is also set to see a strong robusta crop.
"We should start to see some normalisation in flows, following the US removing not just the reciprocal tariffs on coffee, but also the additional 40% tariff on Brazilian coffee.", the report added.
- ANI
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