Afghan-Pak Conflict Escalates, Threatening Regional Security & Trade Routes

The war has disrupted trade routes through Pakistan's seaports into Afghanistan with the closure of entries at the Durand Line.

Meanwhile, the war in Iran is adding its own impact to the West, almost cutting off the beleaguered nation from all trade and aid.

While Afghanistan, reliant on cross-border trade, suffers shortages and inflation, even Pakistan's economy, already fragile, faces further pressure from military expenditures and disrupted exports.

The Indian subcontinent and the Central Asian states also face delays in goods transit, raising costs and undermining regional integration projects.

The war is impacting refugees, especially those at the Pak-Afghan border or intending to cross over, adding to an already existing humanitarian crisis.

Islamabad has lately been evicting Afghan civilians it had once welcomed - hosting, training, and handing over arms in its US-assisted fight against the erstwhile Soviet forces in the neighbourhood for almost a decade till late 1988, through 1989. These insurgent groups later turned their guns against the US-led forces, which led to the latter's hurried withdrawal in 2021.

Now, while Pakistan claims that such armed groups are behind the unrest and terror attacks on its soil, Islamabad has cracked down on all Afghan refugees in its territory.

International agencies have warned of worsening conditions, with food insecurity and medical shortages worsened by disruptions in aid delivery.

The Kabul-Islamabad conflict risks members of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also called Pakistani Taliban, and the Islamic State unleashing its vengeance within the territory and even its neighbourhood.

Even as the Taliban rulers in Kabul were negotiating their way towards diplomacy and governance, they have been drawn into another war, where they are portraying themselves as defenders of Afghan sovereignty.

This militancy could spread into Central Asia and India, raising fears of cross-border terrorism where regional security frameworks are already strained, and ambitious projects like transnational energy pipelines and trade corridors are facing setbacks.

Additionally, there is a threat of diplomatic polarisation with Afghanistan seeking solidarity from Muslim nations and Pakistan aligning with China and Gulf nations.

Meanwhile, Pakistan's media frames the war as a counterterrorism necessity, while Afghan outlets portray it as aggression and civilian suffering.

Islamabad has stressed that airstrikes were aimed at eliminating alleged TTP and IS sanctuaries in Nangarhar, Paktika, and Khost. It argued that Kabul has failed to curb cross-border militancy, forcing Pakistan to act unilaterally.

Afghan media condemned Pakistan's strikes as blatant aggression against a sovereign state, emphasising civilian deaths, including reports of a Kabul hospital being bombed.

Taliban officials claim to have captured Pakistani military posts and inflicted significant casualties, framing themselves as defenders of Afghan territory.

Kabul's media too has appealed to Muslim nations and neighbours to condemn Pakistan's actions, portraying the conflict as part of a larger struggle against external interference. New Delhi is currently monitoring the conflict closely, wary of Pakistan's military posture and the potential fallout. Regional mediators like Qatar, Turkey, and Iran itself are now involved in the current crisis in West Asia, rather than trying to prevent the Pakistan-Afghanistan escalation.

- IANS