ADB lowers Pakistan's FY27 growth outlook to 3.7 pc: Report
New Delhi, July 10
Pakistan's economic growth is expected to slow in the current fiscal year as higher energy costs and pressure on foreign remittances weigh on the economy, the Asian Development Bank said in its latest outlook, according to a report.
A report published in Dawn said that the lender has revised down Pakistan's GDP growth forecast for FY27 to 3.7 per cent from the 4.5 per cent projected in April, according to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO).
The ADB cautioned that the growth outlook for the current fiscal year has weakened because of rising energy costs and anticipated pressure on remittance inflows from overseas Pakistanis.
The revised forecast is below the Pakistan government's growth target of 4 per cent for the fiscal year, though slightly above the International Monetary Fund's projection of 3.5 per cent.
The ADB also raised its inflation projections for Pakistan, citing rising food and fuel prices as well as persistent spillover effects from the ongoing West Asia conflict.
Moreover, inflation is now projected at 7.2 per cent, up from the 6.4 per cent forecast issued in April, while the outlook for FY27 has been revised upward to 8.3 per cent from 7.2 per cent, according to the report.
Pakistan is among several economies facing slower growth and elevated inflation as prolonged disruptions in global energy markets continue to weigh on economic activity, it added.
Across developing Asia and the Pacific, the ADB lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 4.9 per cent from 5.5 per cent in 2025, trimming its April projection by 0.2 percentage points. It retained the regional growth forecast for 2027 at 5.1 per cent, expecting a gradual recovery as energy market pressures ease.
The report said downward revisions for South Asia were driven by weaker outlooks for Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
— IANS
Reader Comments
As someone who follows South Asian economics closely, I find it interesting that Pakistan's FY27 GDP forecast (3.7%) is actually higher than India's projected growth for the same period (around 6.5%-7%). But the inflation differential is concerning - Pakistan at 8.3% vs India's projected 4.5%. The rising energy costs are a regional issue though, not just limited to Pakistan.
The ADB also revised down growth for Bangladesh and Sri Lanka - this is a concerning trend for the whole region. Pakistan's infrastructure issues and political uncertainty are major drags. Meanwhile, India is attracting investment and growing. No wonder the gap keeps widening. 🤔
What's worrying is the remittance pressure - overseas Pakistanis send back billions that support millions of families. With global economic uncertainty, those inflows will shrink, and domestic consumption will take a hit. The government needs to focus on export diversification instead of relying on remittances. Simple economics, really.
I've seen this pattern before - the ADB and IMF keep revising forecasts downward, and Pakistan keeps missing targets. At some point, structural reforms are needed, not just IMF bailouts. The energy sector reforms alone could unlock huge growth if implemented properly. But political instability makes that difficult.
The ADB's forecast of 4.9% growth for developing Asia is a reality check for everyone. For Pakistan, the 3.7% figure is better than the IMF's 3.5%, so there's some silver lining. But having lived through India's '
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