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Govt revises GDP growth to 6.2pc

Posted on Jan 31, 07:53PM | IBNS

New Delhi, Jan 31 : The government on Thursday revised the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2011-12 fiscal to 6.2pc from the earlier estimate of 6.5pc .

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the First Revised estimates of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation for the financial year 2011-12 along with the Second Revised Estimates for the year 2010-11 and Third Revised Estimates for the year 2009-10.

As per the revision policy#1, the First Revised Estimates for the year 2011-12 (earlier called Quick Estimates) have been compiled using industry-wise/institution-wise detailed information instead of the benchmark indicator method.

The estimates of Gross Domestic Product and other aggregates for the years 2009-10 and 2010-11 have been revised on account of use of latest available data on agricultural production, industrial production especially Annual Survey of Industries 2010-11 in lieu of the Index of Industrial Production, government expenditure (replacing Revised Estimates with Actuals for the year 2010-11) and also detailed and more comprehensive data available from various source agencies like Reserve Bank of India and State Directorate of Economics and Statistics.

The salient features of the estimates at aggregate level, which are based on latest available information, are indicated below:

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND GROSS NATIONAL INCOME

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 52,43,582 crore as against ' 49,37,006 crore in 2010-11 registering a growth of 6.2 per cent during the year as against a growth of 9.3 per cent in the year 2010-11.

At current prices, GDP in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 83,53,495 crore as against ' 72,66,967 crore in 2010-11, showing an increase of 15.0 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 19.0 per cent in the previous year.

At constant (2004-05) prices, the Gross National Income at factor cost in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 51,96,848 crore as against ' 48,82,249 crore in 2010-11 showing a rise of 6.4 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 8.8 per cent in the previous year.

At current prices, the Gross National Income in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 82,76,665 crore as compared to ' 71,85,160 crore in 2010-11, showing a rise of 15.2 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 18.4 per cent in the previous year.

The growth rate of 6.2 per cent in the GDP during 2011-12 has been achieved due to growth in financing, insurance, real estate and business services (11.7pc ), transport, storage and communication (8.4pc ), electricity, gas and water supply (6.5pc ) and trade, hotels and restaurants (6.2pc ).

At constant prices, the primary sector, i.e. agriculture, forestry and fishing has shown a growth of 3.6 per cent during 2011-12 as against 7.9 per cent during the year 2010-11.

The growth of secondary sector is 3.5 per cent and that of service sector is 8.2 per cent during 2011-12, as against a growth of 9.2 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively, in the previous year.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at market prices at constant (2004-05) prices in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 56,31,379 crore as against ' 52,96,108 crore in 2010-11 registering a growth of 6.3 per cent during the year as against a growth of 10.5 per cent in the year 2010-11.

At current prices, GDP at market prices in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 89,74,947 crore as against ' 77,95,314 crore in 2010-11, showing an increase of 15.1 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 20.3 per cent in the previous year.

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, SAVING AND CAPITAL FORMATION

As various components of expenditure on Gross Domestic Product, namely, Consumption Expenditure and Capital Formation, are normally measured at market prices, the discussion in the following paragraphs is in terms of market prices.

PRIVATE FINAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ' 50,56,219 crore in 2011-12 as against ' 43,49,889 crore in 2010-11. At constant (2004-05) prices, the PFCE is estimated at ' 33,34,900 crore in 2011-12 as against ' 30,88,880 crore in 2010-11.

In terms of GDP at market prices, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2004-05) prices during 2011-12 are estimated at 56.3 per cent and 59.2 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 55.8 per cent and 58.3 per cent, respectively in 2010-11.

DOMESTIC SAVING

Gross Domestic Saving (GDS) at current prices in 2011-12 is estimated at ' 27,65,291 crore as against ' 26,51,934 crore in 2010-11, constituting 30.8pc of GDP at market prices as against 34.0pc in the previous year.

The decrease in the rate of GDS has mainly been due to the decrease in the rates of financial savings of household sector from 10.4pc to 8.0pc , private corporate sector from 7.9pc to 7.2pc and that of public sector from 2.6pc to 1.3pc in 2011-12 as compared to 2010-11.

In absolute terms, the saving of the household sector has increased from ' 18,32,901 crore in 2010-11 to ' 20,03,720 crore in 2011-12, increasing by 9.3pc during the year.

The saving of private corporate sector has gone up by 4.1pc from ' 6,19,370 crore in 2010-11 to ' 6,44,473 crore in 2011-12 .

However the saving of public sector has gone down by 41.4pc from ' 1,99,662 crore in 2010-11 to ' 1,17,097 crore in 2011-12.

CAPITAL FORMATION

Gross Domestic Capital Formation has increased from ' 28,71,649 crore in 2010-11 to ' 31,41,465 crore in 2011-12 at current prices and it increased from ' 21,20,377 crore in 2010-11 to ' 21,31,839 crore in 2011-12 at constant (2004-05) prices.

The rate of Gross Capital Formation at current prices is 35.0 per cent in 2011-12 as against 36.8 per cent in 2010-11. The rate of Gross Capital Formation at constant (2004-05) prices is 37.9 per cent in 2011-12 as against 40.0 per cent in 2010-11.

Within the Gross Capital Formation at current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation amounted to ' 27,49,072 crore in 2011-12 as against ' 24,74,464 crore in 2010-11, increasing by 11.1pc during the year.

At current prices, the Gross Fixed Capital Formation of the public sector has increased by 9.3pc from ' 6,06,245 crore in 2010-11 to ' 6,62,698 crore in 2011-12, that of private corporate sector by 1.0pc from ' 8,58,558 crore in 2010-11 to ' 8,67,020 crore in 2011-12, and the household sector by 20.7pc from ' 10,09,662 crore in 2010-11 to ' 12,19,354 crore in 2011-12.

The change in stocks of inventories, measured as additions to stocks decreased by 22.7pc at current prices, from ' 2,45,113 crore in 2010-11 to ' 1,89,384 crore in 2011-12. The decrease is observed due to decrease in change in stocks of public and private corporate sector.

ESTIMATES AT PER CAPITA LEVEL

The per capita income (per capita Net National Income at factor cost) in real terms, i.e. at 2004-05 prices, is estimated at ' 38,037 for 2011-12 as against ' 36,342 in 2010-11, registering an increase of 4.7 per cent during the year, as against an increase of 7.2pc during the previous year.

The per capita income at current prices is estimated at ' 61,564 in 2011-12 as against ' 54,151 for the previous year depicting a growth of 13.7 per cent, as against an increase of 17.1pc during the previous year.

The per capita PFCE at current prices in 2011-12 is estimated to be ' 42,065 as against ' 36,677 in the year 2010-11, showing an increase of 14.7pc as against an increase of 15.7pc in the previous year.

The corresponding estimates at constant (2004-05) prices are ' 27,745 and ' 26,045, registering an increase of 6.5pc in 2011-12, as against an increase of 7.1pc in the previous year.