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Government lowers growth forecast to 4.9 percent

Posted on Feb 07 2014 | IANS

New Delhi, Feb 7 : The Indian economy is set to grow below five percent for the second consecutive year due to contraction in manufacturing and mining sectors.

Ahead of a vote on account for the coming fiscal Feb 17, the government Friday lowered growth forecast for the current financial year ending March 31, 2014, to 4.9 percent against the 4.5 percent expansion recorded in the previous financial year.

This projection is sharply lower than 6.1 to 6.7 percent economic expansion pegged by Finance Minister P. Chidambaram in the annual budget for 2013-14 presented in February last year.

The finance ministry recently revised the growth target down to 5 percent.

The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2013-14 is likely to be Rs.57.5 lakh crore as compared to Rs.54.8 lakh crore in the previous year, registering year-on-year increase of 4.9 percent, according to data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).

The government recently lowered the economic growth number for 2012-13 to 4.5 percent from the earlier projection of 5 percent.

For the current fiscal, the sectors which are expected to register more than five percent growth are financing, insurance, real estate and business services; community, social and personal services; and electricity, gas and water supply.

The agriculture sector is expected to grow at 4.6 percent, manufacturing is projected to contract by 0.2 percent, and mining output will drop by 1.9 percent year-on-year in 2013-14.

The GDP at current market price is estimated at Rs.113.2 lakh crore in 2013-14 as against Rs.101.1 lakh crore in the previous year, showing an increase of 11.9 percent.

India's per capita income in real terms (at 2004-05 prices) during 2013-14 is likely to reach Rs.39,961 as compared to Rs.38,856 in the previous year.

The growth rate in per capita income is estimated at 2.8 percent in the current fiscal against the previous year's growth of 2.1 percent.

The net national income (NNI) at factor cost, also known as national income, at 2004-05 prices is likely to be Rs.49.3 lakh crore during 2013-14, as against the previous year's Rs.47.3 lakh crore.

In terms of growth rates, the national income projected to register a growth rate of 4.2 percent in 2013-14 as against the previous year's growth rate of 3.4 percent.

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